Diagnosis and modelling of Tropical Cyclone Catarina (2004) Ron McTaggart-Cowan and Lance Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York.

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Presentation transcript:

Diagnosis and modelling of Tropical Cyclone Catarina (2004) Ron McTaggart-Cowan and Lance Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York

Outline ● Case introduction and background ● Diagnostic investigation of Catarina's origins – Extended analysis for March 2004 – Climatology of persistent Rex blocking in the South Atlantic ● Modelling Catarina's spin-up as a tropical system ● Discussion and future directions

Introduction and Background ● Extratropical disturbance first identified 18/19 ● Tropical structures begin to appear 00/24 ● System becomes tropical just after 00/25 ● Winds of kts develop by 06/28 Storm track and intensity estimates based on best track by Roger Edson

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 13 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 14 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 15 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 16 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 17 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 19 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 29 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 21 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 29 March 2004

Introduction and Background 0915 UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 26 >45 kts QuikScat and GOES imagery from FNMOC

Introduction and Background NOAA NESDIS Mean SST for March 2004 NOAA NESDIS Operational SST anomaly for 26 March

Diagnostic Study ● Investigate the origins of the tropical disturbance in terms of the large-scale flow near South America in late March 2004 ● Determine what - if any - distinct features led to the rare tropical transition/cyclogenesis – Persistent troughing east of Brazil – Maintenance of a Rex block in the are over a period of two weeks

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 13 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 14 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 15 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 16 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 17 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 19 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

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Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 29 March

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March A B

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 21 March A B

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March B

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March B

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March C

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March C

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 29 March

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

Diagnostic Study ● Repeated trough reinforcements off the Brazilian east coast from March 2004 ● Repeated poleward advection of low-PV air from the Pacific over same period ● The resulting Rex block helps to reduce the deep-layer shear over the developing system ● But how often does this happen?

Diagnostic Study Mean 500 hPa Height Anomaly March 2004

Diagnostic Study NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean 300 hPa heights for March 2004 Average anomalous 300 hPa heights for March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

Diagnostic Study Feb-March

● The in-situ development of the system suggests a combination of physical and dynamical forcings ● Cool SSTs (~26C) were at or below climatology ● Lack of in-situ observations make analysis of the case problematic ● A good simulation of the development will provide a consistent dataset from which to continue higher-resolution diagnostics Modelling Study

● Track of the system is well modelled 12/25 – 00/28 ● Storm remains weak throughout the simulation Modelling Study Simulated Track Best Track (Roger Edson)

Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March A B

Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

Modelling Study A B 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

Modelling Study A B 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

Modelling Study 48 h forecast 1200 UTC 27 March

Modelling Study 60 h forecast 0000 UTC 28 March

Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

Modelling Study 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

Modelling Study 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

● The development of TC Catarina occurred under an unusually persistent Rex block off the Brazilian east coast ● Repeated injections of high (low) PV air to the ridge (trough) maintained the block and reduced the shear above the developing system ● Large-scale dynamics and steering are well represented in simulations, but inadequate initial moisture reduces spin-up Summary and Discussion

● Reanalyze case using higher-resolution experimental Brazilian analyses ● Investigate the source of the vapour deficit in the operational analyses ● Perform moisture-based sensitivity studies in an effort to better simulate the observed development Future Directions