DSWG - June 25, Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution- Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive Area Carl L Raish

2 4 CP Response Methodology  Analysis was limited to ESIIDs in competitive ERCOT areas with ‘BUSIDRRQ’ profile types  Transmission charges are based on ESIID-specific load during CP intervals  ESIIDs classified by connection at transmission or distribution voltage level  Classified days as CP Days, Near-CP Days and Non-CP Days  Near-CP days were iteratively determined  Started with 12 possible days  Removed days from list if no response detected for the date  Ended up with 7 Near-CP days  Non-CP days were all remaining non-holiday weekdays (June 1 – Sep 30)  Classified ESIIDs based on Weather Sensitivity and Load Factor  Weather sensitivity (R 2 for week-day use vs average temperature >= 0.6)  Load Factor based on week-day afternoon usage (1:00 PM – 6:00 PM)  High LF > 0.85  Medium LF > 0.60  Low LF ≤ 0.60

3 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  ESIIDs were classified into three response categories based on how they modified usage on CP and Near-CP days  Reduced Day Use -- ESIIDs that lowered usage from 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM) on CP/Near-CP days.  Reduced CP Hour Use -- ESIID that lowered usage during 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM on CP/Near-CP days (but did not reduce day use).  Did not respond – All remaining ESIIDS

4 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Response Type Load Factor Category HighMediumLowTotal Reduce Day Use Reduce Peak Hour Use Non-Respond Total Number of Transmission ESIIDs by Response Type

5 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Response Type Load Factor Category HighMediumLowWS * Total Reduce Day Use ,293 Reduce Peak Hour Use ,427 Non-Respond2,4563, ,6617,994 Total2,6934,0652,2951,66110,714 Number of Distribution ESIIDs by Response Type * WS response and type needs additional analysis

6 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  Baselines were created at the ESIID-level using Non-CP days (May 1 – Sep 30).  Average of 10 days before and 10 days after the CP/Near-CP day.  Baselines were aggregated in groups by response type and load factor category  WS baseline was ERS Regression baseline  Scalar day-of-adjustment applied at the aggregated group level.  Day-of-adjustment window: 0:15 AM – 1:00 PM  Baseline energy for the adjustment window was scaled to the actual energy for the CP/Near-CP day  No scalar adjustment was applied to the group with ‘day-use’ response  Adjusted and unadjusted baselines are shown on graphs for non-responding ESIIDs  In general these ESIIDs had actual use higher than the baseline on CP/Near-CP days than the unadjusted baseline  If these ESIIDs are included in the overall class performance, their increased usage would offset reductions by the remaining ESIIDs

7 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  September 3, 2013 CP day special handling  Load shapes were different … probably related to being the day following the Labor Day holiday.  Tables and graphs show reductions for baselines with and without day-of- adjustment  Reductions based on scalar adjusted baselines reflect the actual load reduction on that day  Reductions based on unadjusted baselines are probably closer to reductions on more normal CP days.

8 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days Transmission Connected ESIIDs

9 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days Distribution Connected ESIIDs

10 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

11 Identify Near-CP Days – June 2013 IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response

12 Identify Near-CP Days – July 2013 IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response Near-CP no response

13 Identify Near-CP Days – August 2013 IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response Near-CP no response

14 Identify Near-CP Days – September 2013 IE 16:45 Near-CP no response Note: Sep 1, 2013 Sunday, Sep 2 Labor Day

15 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 1 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

16 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on June 28 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

17 15-Minute Reductions on Near CP Days Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

18 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days Transmission Connected ESIIDs

19 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days Distribution Connected ESIIDs

20 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

21 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days Transmission Connected ESIIDs

22 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days Distribution Connected ESIIDs

23 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near CP Days Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

24 Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Transmission

25 Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Distribution

26 Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Transmission

27 Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Distribution

28 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Connected ESIIDs

29 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Distribution Connected ESIIDs

30 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

31 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Connected ESIIDs

32 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Distribution Connected ESIIDs

33 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

34 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Connected ESIIDs

35 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Distribution Connected ESIIDs

36 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

37 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Connected ESIIDs

38 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Distribution Connected ESIIDs

39 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

40 June CP Day Load by Reduction Type Transmission Connected ESIIDs

41 June CP Day Load by Reduction Type Distribution Connected ESIIDs

42 July CP Day Load by Reduction Type Transmission Connected ESIIDs

43 July CP Day Load by Reduction Type Distribution Connected ESIIDs

44 August CP Day Load by Reduction Type Transmission Connected ESIIDs

45 August CP Day Load by Reduction Type Distribution Connected ESIIDs

46 September CP Day Load by Reduction Type Transmission Connected ESIIDs

47 September CP Day Load by Reduction Type

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