O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010 MACROES WP 2 : Methodology in Ecosystems TASK 2.2: Improve the description of functional biodiversity within.

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Presentation transcript:

O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010 MACROES WP 2 : Methodology in Ecosystems TASK 2.2: Improve the description of functional biodiversity within APECOSM (O. Maury, J.C. Poggiale, Post-Doc EME) TASK 2.3: APECOSM parameter estimation and validation (O. Maury, F. Ménard, Postdoc EME, PhD EME not funded by ANR)

O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010  Use various types of forced/coupled simulations to disentangle the effects of climate and fishing on tuna population dynamics from the one hand (Task 5.1), characterize the effects of fishing on biodiversity and ecosystem structure (Task 5.2).

O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010 Two runs will be compared: i. the reference one including both observed climate variability and observed catches and fishing efforts during the historical period ii. and the “what if” run including observed climate variability during the historical period but no fishing. Deliverable 5.1 Month 36: Quantitative assessment of the respective effects of climate variability and fishing on tuna populations and community dynamics Task 5.1.: Disentangling the effects of climate and fishing on tuna populations and community dynamics (O. Maury) APECOSM will be run offline for skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye and albacore, forced by NEMO-PISCES simulations based on ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis over

O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010 Task 5.2.: Characterizing the effects of fishing on functional biodiversity and ecosystem structure (O. Maury, O. Aumont, C. Chaboud, Post-Doc EME) Exploring potential cascading effects of fishing using simulations with APECOSM-div: i. the impact of fisheries on the functional diversity of oceanic communities through modifications of  (relative abundance of small and large species in the generic communities), ii. the potential shifts in community structure (replacement of one functional group by another in given regions/periods) due to fishing and their potential irreversibility. Same NEMO, PISCES, APECOSM offline run than in task 5.1.:  computed and analyzed spatially and temporally to track potential changes of its spatial structure due to historical fishing.

O. Maury, MACROES meeting Brest 4-5 May 2010 To address the question of potential regime shifts due to fishing, online simulations using NEMO-PISCES-APECOSM and the bio-economic fleet model developed (Task 3.2) will be run on a looping climatological year. All the functional groups (jellies, squids, fish and crustaceans in each of the 3 main APECOSM communities) will be activated. Potential tipping points (inversion of dominance) will be tracked when fishing pressure is increased. The reversibility of the shift will be tested by relaxing the fishing pressure. Deliverables Month 40: Quantitative analysis of the impacts of fisheries on the functional diversity Month 46: Quantitative analysis of the potential impacts of fisheries on shifts in community structure