SOUTH YORKSHIRE ECONOMIC PROFILE AND PRIORITIES Graham Joyce Director

South Yorkshire Vision ‘To build a balanced,diverse, and sustainable high growth economy in South Yorkshire by 2010, recognised as a growing European centre for high technology manufacturing and knowledge based services,offering opportunities for the whole community’

Current Trends - Jobs gap Jobs gap is the difference between the jobs that South Yorkshire has measured against UK average SY employment growing faster than in the UK, the jobs gap has dropped by a quarter since 2000

Current Trends - Earnings Earnings for both men and women have improved against the national figure Male earnings rose between 2002 and 2003 following 20 years of steady decline

Educational Attainment SY school results improved faster than the national average since Objective 1 started Barnsley has made the most significant improvement % of 15 year olds achieving at GCSE /equivalents 2003/4% point change since 1999/2000: 5+ A* - C grades 5+ A* - G grades Any passes No passes 5+ A* - C grades 5+ A* - G grades Any passes No passes Y&H Barnsley Doncaster Rotherham Sheffield England Ave Source : Dfes

Summary Unemployment Rate – Different age groups; Economic Activity – Males –Increasing for Sheffield/Rotherham; –Decreasing for Barnsley. Earnings - Still 13% Gap with UK overall 2004; Qualifications : 10% gap with UK, GCSE A*-C; VAT stocks improved slightly but still 9% gap with UK;

Objective 1- catalytic effect 16,500 new jobs (+14,400 secured) 6,660 SMEs supported - £640m additional sales 600 new businesses 290,000 assisted with training/development 115,000 sq m. new floorspace created £293m Net Additional GDP £335m Net Safeguarded GDP

….but still cause for concern Are improvements sustainable ? Can we turn revival into transformation? Quality of skills and industrial sectors need to improve further

Source: Experian, Cambridge Econometrics

South Yorkshire in ten years – Baseline estimates Still Underperforming UK by some margin Still Underperforming UK by some margin

No employment growth … why?

Locally …

With policy on …

Sub-regional GDP growth

With policy on … 30,000 extra jobs in South Yorkshire 30,000 extra jobs in South Yorkshire Productivity growth still trails UK Productivity growth still trails UK The productivity gap still widens The productivity gap still widens Employment growth now marginally exceeds UK Employment growth now marginally exceeds UK Output growth also marginally exceeds UK Output growth also marginally exceeds UK European ranking rises European ranking risesBUT Scope for error in original estimates Scope for error in original estimates Simplistic approach means UK & Europe stand still whilst SY benefits. This is unlikely. Other areas get funding too … Simplistic approach means UK & Europe stand still whilst SY benefits. This is unlikely. Other areas get funding too … … further considerations also … further considerations also

Further considerations Migration Migration 30,000 jobs mean people will move in 30,000 jobs mean people will move in Model suggests around 17,000 Model suggests around 17,000 Of these 6,000 expected to take jobs Of these 6,000 expected to take jobs Commuting Commuting 30,000 jobs mean people will commute in 30,000 jobs mean people will commute in Model suggests an extra 9,000 Model suggests an extra 9,000 Which leaves … Which leaves … … 15,000 jobs to be filled by those resident in the area and not in work (remember this is additional!) … 15,000 jobs to be filled by those resident in the area and not in work (remember this is additional!)

Conclusions Advise caution in interpretation, especially scale of impact Advise caution in interpretation, especially scale of impact Our standard forecasts suggest little growth, primarily due to lack of supply side inputs Our standard forecasts suggest little growth, primarily due to lack of supply side inputs If intervention goes on to create 30,000 extra jobs as the model suggests, where do these extra people come from to meet demand? If intervention goes on to create 30,000 extra jobs as the model suggests, where do these extra people come from to meet demand? Relocation and in-commuting (50%) Relocation and in-commuting (50%) Local people not in work (50%) Local people not in work (50%) Is this feasible in the context of South Yorkshire’s supply side infrastructure? Is this feasible in the context of South Yorkshire’s supply side infrastructure? Our long-term models suggest not but significant investment in themes 3 to 6 Our long-term models suggest not but significant investment in themes 3 to 6