Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 February 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Canada and US: Heavy rain fell in the southern US Plains and southeast US while some regions were impacted by sleet and snow. Forecasts indicate wet conditions are likely for California and the southern US for the next 7 days, consistent with El Nino. Mexico and Central America: The region was mostly dry during the past week but above average precipitation is forecast for the next 7 days in central Mexico. Eurasia: Temperatures were much below average in eastern Europe and Russia during the past week. Below average precipitation is expected during the next 7 days in Indonesia associated with El Nino. Highlights

ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC - 2.5ºC above- average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring During the last 4 weeks (3 Jan 2010 – 30 Jan 2010), SSTs were more than 2.0 deg C above average between 170º W and 150º W. For more information go to:

MJO Current Status During the past week the MJO index has been relatively stationary in the Western Pacific. The GFS MJO index forecasts show propagation of the MJO signal toward the end of week 1.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to:

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US and northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of southern China and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( Jan 2010), anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located over the eastern Pacific and southeast US. During the same 7-day period temperature anomalies were above average over eastern Canada, eastern Asia and north-central Africa, temperatures were below average over the north-central US, Europe, and western Asia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A A

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( Jan 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the southeast US, eastern Europe and northern Africa (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over many of the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, above average precipitation fell across the southeastern US, eastern Canada and parts of the southern Plains while below average precipitation fell over the Alaskan panhandle. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow fell as far south as the southern plains and southern Atlantic region.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, above average precipitation was observed over California, the southwest, and the southeast US, consistent with El Nino conditions.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in the southwest US and California and below average across parts of Alaska and the Ohio Valley, consistent with El Nino conditons.

30 day rainfall totals are above average in the northwest US and northern California and near average in the central US and in Florida. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures in Canada were consistent with the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), being above average across eastern Canada. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum An enhanced subtropical Pacific jetstream flowing into the central and southern US brought a mild, moist flow to the US. Icy conditions and below freezing temperataures impacted the southern Plains and southern Atlantic region. Temperatures were above average over much of Mexico. Low temperatures fell in the single digits to lower teens, with freezes observed over northern Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 wet conditions are predicted to continue across northern California, the southern Plains, and the southeast US, consistent with an enhanced subtropical jet stream.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 wet conditions are likely to continue across the western and southern US consistent with El Nino. Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Jan 2010 Valid 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2010 Forecast from 24 Jan 2010 Valid 24 Jan – 30 Jan 2010 Observed 25 Jan – 31 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, light precipitation impacted northwest Mexico and parts of Central America. For more information see:

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in northwest Mexico and below average in the Yucatan peninsula.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in northwestern and parts of Central America, and below average in the Yucatan peninsula.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in central Mexico, southern Mexico, Nicaragua/Honduras, and near average in northeast Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010 – Week 1 For Days 1-7 above average precipitation is forecast for central Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above average precipitation is forecast for north-central Mexico. Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010– Week 2

Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Jan 2009 Valid 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2010 Forecast from 24 Jan 2010 Valid 24 Jan – 30 Jan 2010 Observed 25 Jan – 31 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, near average precipitation was observed over Eurasia.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, below average precipitation was observed over northwest Russia, while above average precipitation was observed over eastern Asia.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in southern Europe, southeast Asia and Indonesia, while precipitation was below average in northern Europe.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in France, above average in eastern Ukraine and Hungary and near average in central Russia. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days temperatures were below average in Europe associated with below average 500-hpa heights. In northwest Africa temperatures were near to above average with low temperatures in the 0 to 5 deg C range.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures in Russia were below average associated with below average 500-hpa heights.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat, above average in south- central India, above average in eastern China, and near average in Luzon. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were above average in northwest India. Temperatures were above average throughout China with low temperatures below freezing extending near the Yangtze River Valley.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010 – Week 1 For more information on Tropical Hazards see: (updated on Tuesdays) For Days 1-7 near average precipitation is forecast for Europe. Near to below average precipitation is forecast for Indonesia, associated with El Nino.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above average precipitation is forecast for southern Europe and eastern China while below average precipitation is forecast for Indonesia, associated with El Nino. Forecasts from 1 Feb 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Jan 2010 Valid 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2010 Forecast from 24 Jan 2010 Valid 24 Jan – 30 Jan 2010 Observed 25 Jan – 31 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

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