Lecture Four Financial Forecasting Latest Financial Statements Sales Forecast Cost Accounting Forecasts Financial Market Data Preliminary Projections: 1. Financial Statements 2. Financing Plan 3. Resulting Ratios Evaluation: Is the preliminary plan a good one, or should it be modified? Final Projections: 1. Financial Statements 2. Financing Plan 3. Resulting Ratios Good Plan Bad Plan Modify and Revise

Steps Forecast sales Project the assets needed to support sales Project internally generated funds Project outside funds needed Decide how to raise funds See effects of plan on ratios

Balance Sheet (Millions of $) Cash & sec.$ 20Accts. pay. & accruals$ 100 Accounts rec.240Notes payable 100 Inventories 240 Total CL$ 200 Total CA$ 500L-T debt100 Common stk500 Net fixed assets 500Retained earnings 200 Total assets$1,000 Total claims$1,000

Income Statement (Millions of $) Sales $2, Less: Var. Costs (60%) 1, Fixed Costs EBIT$ Interest EBT$ Taxes (40%) Net income$ Dividends (30%)$15.12 Add’n to RE$35.28

NWCIndustryCondition BEP10.00%20.00%Poor Profit Margin2.52%4.00%“ ROE7.20%15.60%“ DSO days32.00 days “ Inv. turnover8.33x11.00x“ F.A. turnover4.00x5.00x“ T.A. turnover2.00x2.50x“ Debt/ assets30.00%36.00%Good TIE6.25x9.40xPoor Current ratio2.50x3.00x“ Payout ratio30.00% O.K. Key Ratios

Formula Method for Forecasting AFN Additional funds needed Required increase in assets Spontaneous increase in liabilities Increase in retained earnings = ((())) -- AFN = ( A* S0S0 )  S ( L* S0S0 )  S-M S 1 (1 - d)- Assumptions: 1. All assets, account payable, and accruals will grow proportionally with sales profit margin and dividend payout will be maintained.  S= 0.25 x $2,000 = $500. AFN = ( $1,000 $2,000 ) ($500) ( $100 $2,000 ) ($500) ($2,500) ( )- = $250 - $25 - $44.10 = $180.90

Key Assumptions Operating at full capacity in Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales. Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained. Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%  S = 25%)

Assets Sales 0 1,000 2,000 1,250 2,500 A*/S 0 = 1,000/2,000 = 0.5= 1,250/2,500.  Assets= (A*/S 0 )  Sales = 0.5(500) =250. Assets = 0.5 sales

Assets must increase by $250 million. What is the AFN, based on the AFN equation? AFN= (A*/S 0 )  S - (L*/S 0 )  S - M(S 1 )(1 - d) = ($1,000/$2,000)($500) - ($100/$2,000)($500) ($2,500)( ) = $180.9 million.

Assumptions about How AFN Will Be Raised The payout ratio will remain at 30 percent (d = 30%). No new common stock will be issued. Any external funds needed will be raised as debt, 50% notes payable and 50% L-T debt.

Forecasted Income Statement 1997 Factor 1998 Forecast Sales$2,000x1.25$2,500 Less: VC1,200x1.251,500 FC700x EBIT$100$125 Interest16 EBT$84$109 Taxes (40%)3444 Net. income$50$65 Div. (30%)$15$19 Add. to RE$35$46

st Pass Balance Sheet (Assets) At full capacity, so all assets must increase in proportion to sales Factor 1st Pass Cash$20 x1.25 $25 Accts. rec.240 x Inventories240 x Total CA$500$625 Net FA500 x Total assets$1,000$1,250

st Pass Balance Sheet (Claims) *From income statement Factor1st Pass AP/accruals$100x1.25$125 Notes payable100 Total CL$200$225 L-T debt100 Common stk.500 Ret. earnings200+46*246 Total claims$1,000$1,071

What is the additional financing needed (AFN)? Forecasted total assets= $1,250 Forecasted total claims= $1,071 Forecast AFN= $ 179 NWC must have the assets to make forecasted sales. The balance sheet must balance. So, we must raise $179 externally.

How will the AFN be financed? Additional notes payable= 0.5($179)= $89.50 Additional L-T debt= 0.5($179)= $89.50 But this financing will add to interest expense, which will lower NI and retained earnings. We will generally ignore financing feedbacks.

nd Pass Balance Sheet (Assets) 1st PassAFN2nd Pass Cash$25 Accts. rec.300 Inventories300 Total CA$625 Net FA625 Total assets$1,250 No change in asset requirements.

nd Pass Balance Sheet (Claims) 1st PassAFN2nd Pass AP/accruals$125 Notes payable Total CL$225$315 L-T debt Common stk.500 Ret. earnings246 Total claims$1,071$1,250

Equation AFN = $181 vs. $179. Why different? Equation method assumes a constant profit margin. Financial statement method is more flexible. More important, it allows different items to grow at different rates.

Ratios (E)Industry BEP10.00% 20.00%Poor Profit Margin2.52%2.60%4.00%“ ROE7.20%8.71%15.60%“ DSO (days) “ Inv. turnover8.33x 11.00x“ F.A. turnover4.00x 5.00x“ T.A. turnover2.00x 2.50x“ D/A ratio30.00%40.32%36.00%“ TIE6.25x7.81%9.40x“ Current ratio2.50x1.98x3.00x“ Payout ratio30.00% O.K.

Suppose in 1997 fixed assets had been operated at only 75% of capacity. With the existing fixed assets, sales could be $2,667. Since sales are forecasted at only $2,500, no new fixed assets are needed. Capacity Sales Actual sales % of capacity 

How would the excess capacity situation affect the 1998 AFN? The projected increase in fixed asets was $125, the AFN would decrease by $125. Since no new fixed assets will be needed, AFN will fall by $125, to $179 - $125 = $54.

Q.If sales went up to $3,000, not $2,500, what would the F.A. requirement be? A.Target ratio = FA/Capacity sales = 500/2,667 = 18.75%. Have enough F.A. for sales up to $2,667, but need F.A. for another $333 of sales:  FA = (333) = $62.4.

How would excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios? 1.Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would be better. 2.Less new debt, hence lower interest, so higher profits, EPS, ROE (when financing feedbacks considered). 3.Debt ratio, TIE would improve.

Forecasted Ratios: S 98 = $2,500 % of 1997 Capacity 100%75%Industry BEP 10.00%11.11% 20.00% Profit Margin 2.60% 4.00% ROE 8.71% 15.60% DSO (days) Inv. turnover 8.33x 11.00x F.A. turnover 4.00x5.00x T.A. turnover 2.00x2.22x2.50x D/A ratio 40.32%33.69% 36.00% TIE 7.81%7.81x9.40x Current ratio 1.98x2.48x3.00x

How is NWC performing with regard to its receivables and inventories? DSO is higher than the industry average, and inventory turnover is lower than the industry average. Improvements here would lower current assets, reduce capital requirements, and further improve profitability and other ratios.

Assets Sales 0 1,100 1,000 2,0002,500 Declining A/S Ratio 1,000/2,000 = 0.5; 1,000/2,500 = Declining ratio shows economies of scale. Going from S = 0 to S = 2,000 requires 1,000 of assets. Next 500 of sales requires only 100 of assets. Base Stock }

Assets Sales 1,0002, A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small  S leads to a large  A ,000 1,500

Summary: How different factors affect the AFN forecast. Excess capacity: Existence lowers AFN. Base stocks of assets: Leads to less-than-proportional asset increases. Economies of scale: Also leads to less-than-proportional asset increases. Lumpy assets: Leads to large periodic AFN requirements, recurring excess capacity.

Regression Analysis for Asset Forecasting Get historical data on a good company, then fit a regression line to see how much a given sales increase will require in way of asset increase.

Example of Regression Constant ratio overestimates inventory required to go from S 1 = 2,000 to S 2 = 2,500. For a Well-Managed Co. YearSalesInv $1,280$ , , E2,500E 192E Inventory Sales (000) Regression line Constant ratio forecast

Regression with 10B for Our Example Same as finding beta coefficients. Clear all 1280 Input118  1600 Input138  2000 Input162  0 y, m 40.0 = Inventory at sales = 0. SWAP = Slope coefficient. Inventory = Sales. LEAVE CALCULATOR ALONE! ^

Equation is now in the calculator. Let’s use it by inputting new sales of $2,500 and getting forecasted inventory: 2500 y, m The constant ratio forecast was inventory = 300, so the regression forecast is lower by $107. This would free up $107 for use elsewhere, which would improve profitability and raise P 0. ^

How would increases in these items affect the AFN? Higher dividend payout ratio? Increase AFN : Less retained earnings. Higher profit margin? Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings. Higher capital intensity ratio, A*/S 0 ? Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales increase. Pay suppliers in 60 days rather than 30 days? Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital, i.e., L*/S 0 increases.