Cook’s Look Ahead: 2016 House Races Contributors: Charlie Cook Editor and Publisher, The Cook Political Report Jennifer Duffy Senior Editor, The Cook Political Report Last Updated: January 14, 2016 Producer: Justin Brown Edited by: Katharine Conlon Director: Afzal Bari

Roadmap for the Presentation 2016 HOUSE RACESPRESENTATION CENTER 1 Breakdown of the House House Seats in Play in 2016 Reps Who Won With Less Than 55% in 2014 Election

Breakdown of Current House Representatives PRESENTATION CENTER 2 Number of House Seats in the 114 th Congress, by Party ■ Democrat ■ Republican Source: The Cook Political Report 218 Needed for Majority 2016 HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown 1 Vacancy, Rep. John Boehner (R, OH-08) Resigned Special Primary to be Held 3/8/16

■ Solid Democrat ■ Likely Democrat ■ Lean Democrat ■ Toss Up ■ Lean Republican ■ Likely Republican ■ Solid Republican As Few As 33 House Seats May See Close Races in the 2016 Election PRESENTATION CENTER House Race Ratings, by Party Source: The Cook Political Report 2016 HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown

Roadmap for the Presentation PRESENTATION CENTER 4 Breakdown of the House House Seats in Play in 2016 Reps Who Won With Less Than 55% in 2014 Election 2016 HOUSE RACES

Republicans Have More at Stake in 2016, But Aren’t Expected to See Big Losses in the House PRESENTATION CENTER 5 House Seats in Play in 2016, by Cook Political Report Rating Source: The Cook Political Report Republican-Held Seats (40) Democrat-Held Seats (18) HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Cook Rating for 2016 Election

39 GOP House Seats Could See a Party Change in the 2016 Election PRESENTATION CENTER 6 Breakdown of 2016 House Races, by Cook Political Report Rating Source: The Cook Political Report Graham (FL-02) Bost (IL-12) Davis (IL-13) Bishop (MI-08) MacArthur (NJ- 03) Stefanik (NY-21) Reed (NY-23) Pittenger (NC- 09) Costello (PA-06) Meehan (PA-07) OPEN SEAT (VA-02) Comstock (VA- 10) Mooney (WV-02) 2016 HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Coffman (CO-06) Curbelo (FL-26) Dold (IL-10) Blum (IA-01) Poliquin (ME-02) Guinta (NH-01) Hurd (TX-23) OPEN SEAT (MN- 02) OPEN SEAT (NV- 03) OPEN SEAT (NY- 19) OPEN SEAT (NY- 22) OPEN SEAT (PA- 08) McSally (AZ-02) Denham (CA-10) Valadao (CA-21) Knight (CA-25) Mica (FL-07) Young (IA-03) Walberg (MI-07) Garrett (NJ-05) Zeldin (NY-01) Katko (NY-24) Love (UT-04) OPEN SEAT (MI- 01) Bold denotes opposing party’s seat

18 Democratic House Seats Could See a Party Change in the 2016 Election PRESENTATION CENTER 7 Breakdown of 2016 House Races, by Cook Political Report Rating Source: The Cook Political Report Sinema (AZ-09) Costa (CA-16) Aguilar (CA-31) Ruiz (CA-36) Peters (CA-52) Esty (CT-05) Webster (FL-10) Delaney (MD-06) Peterson (MN- 07) Maloney (NY-18) Slaughter (NY- 25) OPEN SEAT (CA-24) 2016 HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Ashford (NE-02) OPEN SEAT (AZ- 01) OPEN SEAT (FL- 18) OPEN SEAT (NY- 03) Bera (CA-07) Nolan (MN-08) Hardy (NV-04) Forbes (VA-04) OPEN SEAT (FL- 13) Bold denotes opposing party’s seat

Republicans Have Slightly More Open House Seats Than Democrats Going into the Elections PRESENTATION CENTER 8 Open House Seats by Party Source: The Cook Political Report 2016 HOUSE RACES January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown

Roadmap for the Presentation PRESENTATION CENTER 9 Breakdown of the House House Seats in Play in 2016 Reps Who Won With Less Than 55% in 2014 Election 2016 HOUSE RACES

4 GOP Representatives Won With Less Than 50% of the Vote in 2014 PRESENTATION CENTER 10 Republican Representatives Who Won With Less Than 55% of the Vote in the 2014 Election Source: The Cook Political Report January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown 2016 HOUSE RACES 49.9% or Less (4) (ME-02) Bruce Poliquin 47% (WV-02) Alex Mooney 47.1% (NV-04) Cresent Hardy 48.5% (TX-23) Will Hurd 49.8% 50% to 51.9% (9) (AZ-02) Martha McSally 50% (UT-04) Mia Love 50.9% (AK-AL) Don Young 51% (IA-01) Rod Blum 51.1% (IL-10) Robert Dold 51.3% (FL-26) Carlos Curbelo 51.5% (NH-01) Frank Guinta 51.7% (AR-02) French Hill 51.9% (CO-06) Mike Coffman 51.9% 52% to 55% (10) (MI-01) Dan Benishek 52.1% (IA-03) David Young 52.8% (AR-04) Bruce Westerman 53.8% (NY-01) Lee Zeldin 54.4% (GA-12) Rick Allen 54.8% (IL-12) Mike Bost 52.5% (MI-07) Tim Walberg 53.5% (NJ-03) Tom MacArthur 54% (MI-08) Mike Bishop 54.6% (NY-11) Michael Grimm 54.9%

4 Democratic Representatives Won With Less Than 50% of the Vote in 2014 PRESENTATION CENTER 11 Democratic Representatives Who Won With Less Than 55% of the Vote in the 2014 Election Source: The Cook Political Report January 14, 2016 | Justin C. Brown 2016 HOUSE RACES 49.9% or Less (4) (MN-08) Rick Nolan 48.5% (NE-02) Brad Ashford 49% (NY-18) Sean Patrick Maloney 49.6% (MD-06) John Delaney 49.7% 50% to 51.9% (10) (NY-25) Louise M. Slaughter 50.2% (FL-02) Gwen Graham 50.5% (CA-26) Julia Brownley 51.3% (CA-52) Scott Peters 51.6% (CA-24) Lois Capps 51.9% (CA-07) Ami Bera 50.4% (CA-16) Jim Costa 50.7% (MO-05) Emanuel Cleaver 51.6% (CA-31) Pete Aguilar 51.7% (HI-01) Mark Takai 51.9% 52% to 55% (21) (CA-09) Jerry McNerney 52.4% (CA-03) John Garamendi 52.6% (IL-11) Bill Foster 53.5% (FL-09) Alan Grayson 54% (MN-07) Collin Peterson 54.2% (AZ-09) Kyrsten Sinema 54.7% (NH-02) Annie Kuster 54.9% (IA-02) Dave Loebsack 52.5% (NY-04) Kathleen Rice 52.7% (OR-05) Kurt Schrader 53.7% (MN-01) Tim Walz 54.2% (NY-03) Steve Israel 54.6% (IN-07) Andre Carson 54.7% (MA-09) Bill Keating 55% (AZ-01) Ann Kirkpatrick 52.6% (CT-05) Elizabeth Etsy 53.3% (CT-04) Jim Himes 53.7% (CA-36) Raul Ruiz 54.2% (WA-10) Denny Heck 54.7% (IN-07) Andre Carson 54.7% (MA-06) Seth Moulton 55%

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