World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend.

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Presentation transcript:

World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

Oil Price 1.A play 2.Hubbert curve 3.Technology 4.Examples 5.Lambda Hubbert Curve 6.Lambda Hubbert Change 7.Price Forecast

1. A Play

What is this?

This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs

Why is the rig count going down? 1) Low natural gas price 2) Technology 3) Depletion

This suggests: Shale can have quick peaks and declines

2. Hubbert Hubbert is a trend

Time Discovery, Production T0T0 T1T1 T2T2 Discovery Hubbert Curve Production Hubbert Curve Discovery and Production

US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

CQD CQ Time CQD CQ URR 0 0 Hubbert Curve Cumulative Hubbert Curve Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply 0 URR Quadratic Hubbert Curve

US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005

US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

3. Technology

?

US Technology 2005

4. Examples Examples of Hubbert and Technology

What is this?

It is the US

This is the US on Steroids

What is this?

This is the Soviet Union

This is the Soviet Union on Steroids

5. Lambda Hubbert Risk aversion

Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply 0 URR Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological Maximum Supply 0 URR Path of Actual Oil Production Paths of potential oil production expansion Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Venezuela and US 2005 Indexed Hubbert Curve

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

World Normal and Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation QP = b 1 * CQP + b 2 * CQP 1+λ

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012

6. Lambda Hubbert Change Forecast

7. Price Forecasts Consolidating TRENDS

Conclusion 1.Hubbert, Hubbert, Hubbert. 2.Lambda Hubbert 3.Multi-cycle Lambda Hubbert 4.Looking at history shows: 2 nd cycles often short

5.World economy is hanging in the balance 6.A price shock can come at any time We are still in an Energy Crisis