1 Seed Transfer 2.0: Establishing plantations for the new normal Federation of BC Woodlot Associations Greg O’Neill Tree Improvement Branch FLNRO Oct.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Seed Transfer 2.0: Establishing plantations for the new normal Federation of BC Woodlot Associations Greg O’Neill Tree Improvement Branch FLNRO Oct. 2015

Seed Transfer 2.0 Assisted migration – why? (9 slides) Assisted migration – how? (6 slides) Diversification - why and how? (4 slides) 2

3 Glimpse BB, CH and pest resistance genetically programmed to climate of grandparents > Impacts Exaggerated< 32 years in elevated temp Reforestation paradigm “local is best” > decr. ecological goods and services

Observed climate trends & impacts 25-year trend in precipitation 25-year trend in winter temperature Spruce & aspen dieback Dothistroma needle castMountain pine beetle Hogg et al Michaelian et al Allen et al Woods et al Risks associated with inaction Image: Sally Aitken/Andreas Hamann

5

6

plant harvest 22% -30%

8

9 Species: coastal yellow-cedar Species: western larch Test site: Fort St. John

Seed Transfer 2.0 Assisted migration – why? (9 slides) Assisted migration – how? (6 slides) Diversification - why and how? (4 slides) 10

11 CSTD Seed procurement zone Cutblock

12 IPCC 2001 Evolutionary lag

13 Mig. dist. Cutblock Seed procurement zone

14 Summary – assisted migration 1.Warm seed good. Cold seed bad.

Seed Transfer 2.0 Assisted migration – why? (9 slides) Assisted migration – how? (6 slides) Diversification - why and how? (4 slides) 15

16 Uncertainty: none CC: no Uncertainty: moderate CC: no Uncertainty addressed by: - enlarging the procurement space - using multiple seed sources

17 Uncertainty: none CC: yes Seedlot

18 Uncertainty: none CC: yes Seedlot Uncertainty addressed by enlarging the procurement space and using multiple seed sources Climate change addressed by migrating the target climate Uncertainty: mod. CC: yes

19 Summary - diversification 1.Enlarge and multiply.

20

21 Acknowledgements: CBST science working group: Lee Charleson Leslie McAuley Nick Ukrainetz Tongli Wang Alvin Yanchuk Susan Zedel ForSite Consultants Ltd.