© GEO Secretariat Toshio Koike, Professor The Univeristy of Tokyo/ Japan GEO WG Chair Water Cycle Integrator

Extremes Flood/Drought Climate System Water Resources Management System Water Cycle Agriculture/Food Biodiversity/Ecosystem Health Energy Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working Together Regime Shift

Observation Integration Model Integration Data Integration & Analysis Cross-SBA/CoP Coordination Disaster/Health/Energy/Climate/Weather/Agriculture/Forest/Ecosystem/Biodiversity Sustained Education Framework Management System Integration Water Cycle Integrator Integrated & Coordinated Approach

Volta River : Station Map Legend Rain (16) Discharge (16) Dam (6) Groundwater (31)

Niger River : Station Map Legend Rain (354) Discharge (36) Dam (4) Groundwater (1289)

6 GCOM-W GCOM-C EarthCARE GPM ALOS-2 ALOS Cryosat-2 SMOS ADM-Aeolus METEOSAT MSG MTG EPS Metop Post EPS SMAP Satellite Observation Integration

Weather Prediction Models Water Cycle Integrator In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

no-gauges area exists ⇒ rainfall pattern is not well understood ⇒ rainfall amount are necessary for calculating run off 1 ． UPPER NIGER observation station Page 3 overcome this issue with model simulation

model CALDAS ● satellite TRMM Page 25

model CALDAS ● satellite TRMM Page 26

3 rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco 4-5 February, 2013 Experiments TRMM (Obs.) No assimilationAssimilation (qv,qc,qs,qi) After 1 hour After 3 hours TRMM (Obs.) No assimilation  poor simulation of the event Simulates the event  wrong place Persistent overestimation NW ~(32E,0N) Assimilation improves fore cast Spatial pattern similar to observed(TRMM) Quantitatively: still a way to go

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

Hydrological Modeling: WEB-DHM Calibration

Upper Niger River Basin

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

3 rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco 4-5 February, 2013 Extreme Rainfall Events (Top 20) by 3 GCMs during 20 years in past (observed and simulated) and future(projected) Return Period of Flood by 3 GCMs during 20 years in past (observed and simulated) and future(projected)

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

21 m cm Groundwater Level Variations (satellite-observed) Groundwater Level Variations (ground-observed)

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall

Water Cycle Integrator Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Rain fall

Future GW Variations -1.3mm/year GW storage anomaly (cm) 18/20 GW storage anomaly (cm) GW (TWS – SM) GW (LDAS-WEBDHM) Inter-comparison

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall Crop Model Urban Water Model

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

27 Seasonal Change of LAI by Coupled Model and Satellites Volta River AVHRR LAI MODIS LAI Medjerda River Simulated LAI

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

30 Figure 5.7. Same as Figure 5.6., but for daily maximum land surface temperature. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Biomass Production in the Volta River Basin Precipitation Change Projected each Model Air Temperature Change Projected each Model

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Rain fall Crop Model Urban Water Model

Sensitivity study 1: transplanting date

Sensitivity study 2: rainfall & irrigation

Observation Integration Model Integration Data Integration & Analysis Cross-SBA/CoP Coordination Disaster/Health/Energy/Climate/Weather/Agriculture/Forest/Ecosystem/Biodiversity Sustained Education Framework Management System Integration Water Cycle Integrator Integrated & Coordinated Approach

\\ Member State Trans-boundary River Basin Organization Member State Member State Member State Space Agencies Regional Centers Modeling Centers Science Communities Universities Planning Operation Understanding Prediction Application UN Programs ODA Projects Science Projects stake- holder stake- holder Sharing Data and Information: IT Infrastructure Exchanging Ideas and Experiences: communication Working Together: action plans Work Bench Sustained Educational Framework (universities) Regional Cooperation Sharing Data and Information Exchanging Ideas and Experiences Working Together Training Module

© GEO Secretariat Toshio Koike, Professor The Univeristy of Tokyo/ Japan GEO WG Chair Water Cycle Integrator An Innovative Tool for Working Together Thanks!

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

Eco System Service Environment Load Forest Village Ocean Wet Land Biodiversity Flood Plain Wet Land Agriculture Climate Change Changes in Land Hydrology Sediment River Topography Material Cycle Water Cycle Farming Village: Shubuto River, Hokkaido Biodiversity Fagus Crenata

River Basin Management Water Cycle Integrator Index Organism Agriculture Support Urban Environment Conservation Loading Unit Agricultural Info. Famer’s Needs Biodiversity Data In-situ Data Ground Elevation Sewage Weather Prediction Models In-situ Data Rainfall River Flow Soil Moisture Satellite MW Vis. IR Gravity Ground Water Seasonal Prediction Climate Prediction Evaluation & Bias Correction Water Quality River Flow Evapo- transpiration Soil Moisture Ground Water IWRM Climate Change Adaptation Val. Data Assimilation Snow Water Cycle Model Crop Model Urban Water Model Rain fall

Understanding Work together Discussion River Monitoring City Monitoring Safety SecurityDynamism Richness Climate System Forest, Hilly area Ground Water Material Flow Low Flow Asa River Heat Wave Heavy Rainfall Drought Sedimentation Sewage System Forest Monitoring Sedimentation production Land Use Smart Activities Inundation Hachioji Sewage Farm