Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia.

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Presentation transcript:

Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia

Adoption rate of technology What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on our businesses? A natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ The transition to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by:  policy measures and regulation;  consumer sentiment;  pricing advantage. Are you ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

Roger’s diffusion curve

Wake up and smell the roses Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

Renewable energy growth Data IEA

Potential EV growth

Declining price on solar

Global renewables

Global renewables >

Global energy – fossil and renewables

Renewables and storage in Africa Developing nations with modest domestic power needs means storage may already be economically affordable.

Technology adoption rates Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations/CFOs Regulation Energy security