Alternative Fuels in the New Age of Oil David Livingston | September 2015 Advanced Biofuels Conference | Stockholm.

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Presentation transcript:

Alternative Fuels in the New Age of Oil David Livingston | September 2015 Advanced Biofuels Conference | Stockholm

Oil Price Decline Driving Oil Demand Recovery Source: UK Department for Transport, Florida Department of Transportation

Ultra-deep Oils Tight Shale Oils Oil Sands (Bitumens) Extra-heavy OilsOil Shale (Kerogen)Condensates Natural Gas Liquids Heavy Oils More Oil Substitutes

Two-thirds of fossil fuels— including one-third of oil reserves—should not be burned if global warming is to stay below the 2°C target. (IPCC, IEA, UCL) Climate Strategy for Fossil Fuels Carnegie’s Oil-Climate Index compares global oils’ GHG emissions throughout the supply chain to assist stakeholders in developing a targeted climate strategy for fossil fuels Which one-third of oil supplies? There is at least an 80% difference in GHG emissions between global oils

OCI Overall: Phase 1 Results

Upstream Production Costs If carbon isn’t priced (explicitly or implicitly), BAU won’t consider the climate Oil Economics vs. GHG Impacts

Downstream Product Values Current market incentives to combust carbon Need for Informed Policymaking: Biofuels are displacing which oil?

New Tools for New Fuels: oci.carnegieendowment.org

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