CCC Survey Bonaire, St. Eustatius, and Saba January 2016 Dr. Wouter Veenendaal Prof. Dr. Gert Oostindie

Program of the Presentation Introduction of CCC and the opinion survey Design and process of the survey; irregularities on St. Maarten Results of the opinion survey on BES islands Comparison with SCP Evaluation Report (2015) Comparison with 1998 survey Questions & discussion

This research… Part of interdisciplinary research project Confronting Caribbean Challenges Funded by Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) Based at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies (KITLV-KNAW) Independent, academic research Five researchers

The Opinion Survey: What? Constitutional Status Relationship with the Netherlands RCN Local Politics Identity Media

The Opinion Survey: How? Interviews on all 6 Dutch Caribbean islands Paper questionnaire; interviews at peoples’ homes Local, experienced interviewers Closed questions with fixed answer categories Interviews in 3 or 4 different languages

The Opinion Survey: When? Between 14 September and 31 October 2015: fieldwork (interviews) After 31 October: data-entry Now: first results of Bonaire, Saba, and St. Eustatius March-June: results Aruba & Curaçao; more in- depth analysis

The Opinion Survey: Why? Almost no opinion research about politics & The Kingdom on all 6 Dutch Caribbean islands combined Last extensive opinion survey was conducted in 1998 (Oostindie & Verton) Five years after 2010 reforms: islands have a new political status within The Kingdom Interesting to draw comparisons between islands and over time

Response Figures IslandSampleResponseNon-Response% Response Bonaire % Saba % St. Eustatius %

Who Participated? Where were you born? Most frequently given answers BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Aruba2,9%6,5%3,3% Bonaire58,9%-0,7% Curaçao15,1%4,2%5,9% Saba-43,5%0,7% St. Eustatius-0,6%41,4% St. Maarten-6,0%10,5% The Netherlands8,4%7,7%3,9% St. Kitts and Nevis-3,0%9,9% United States1,0%10,7%2,0% Dominican Republic4,5%5,4%7,9%

Political Status BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very good2,4%2,5%2,0% Good28,5%28,2%8,6% Neither good nor bad36,5%26,2%29,8% Bad20,6%27,7%36,4% Very bad8,4%2,5%11,3% Don’t know / no answer3,6%12,9%12,0% The Netherlands Antilles were dissolved in Do you think this was good or bad for [island]?

Political Status BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Much better5,8%3,7%2,0% Slightly better22,0%26,1%13,3% About the same17,4%21,1%10,7% Slightly worse31,2%21,6%27,3% Much worse22,0%13,3%32,7% Don’t know / no answer1,7%14,2%14,0% Do you think that life on [island] is now generally better, about the same or worse than 5 years ago?

Political Status BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Much better5,4%5,5%7,9% Slightly better31,1%38,2%15,2% About the same23,5%26,7%28,5% Slightly worse12,7%13,4%15,2% Much worse10,3%6,5%15,2% Don’t know / no answer17,1%9,7%17,8% Do you expect life on [island] in 2 years’ time generally to be better, about the same or worse than it is now?

Political Status BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Full independence2,6%3,2%7,3% An autonomous country within the Kingdom 20,8%7,4%28,7% A special municipality of the Netherlands 40,0%47,9%18,0% A return to the Netherlands Antilles 24,4%30,0%31,3% I would rather not say2,2%2,1%4,7% Don’t know / no opinion10,0%9,5%10,0% If you had to choose, which of the following would you want for [island] now: full independence, an autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, a special municipality of the Netherlands, or a return to the Netherlands Antilles?

Political Status BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Full independence10,4%8,4%15,9% An autonomous country within the Kingdom 22,0%12,6%29,1% A special municipality of the Netherlands 27,1%37,9%9,3% A return to the Netherlands Antilles 16,9%26,3%22,5% I would rather not say1,5%3,7%16,6% Don’t know / no opinion22,0%11,1%6,6% And which of the following would you want for [island] in 25 years’ time: full independence, an autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, a special municipality of the Netherlands, or a return to the Netherlands Antilles?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very satisfied1,0%1,4%3,3% Satisfied14,0%21,6%5,3% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied36,5%26,0%21,9% Dissatisfied34,8%32,2%36,4% Very dissatisfied7,2%8,7%17,2% Don’t know / no answer6,5%10,1%15,9% How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with how the current Dutch government treats [island]?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very high level of knowledge0,2%0,5%2,6% High level of knowledge2,9%9,0%3,3% Neither a high nor low level of knowledge 8,5%6,2%9,3% Not much knowledge37,1%32,2%33,8% Very little knowledge46,3%43,1%36,4% Don’t know / no answer4,8%9,0%14,6% How much or little knowledge do you think Dutch politicians, such as members of parliament or the government, have about the local culture of [island]?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very high level of respect0,7%0,9%3,3% High level of respect5,1%13,7%2,7% Neither a high nor low level of respect 20,7%20,3%10,7% Not much respect32,1%23,6%34,0% Very little respect35,8%30,2%32,0% Don’t know / no answer5,6%11,3%17,4% And how much or little respect do you think Dutch politicians, such as members of parliament or the government, have for the local culture of [island]?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very good8,0%2,8%7,9% Good40,6%58,0%23,2% Neither good nor bad32,4%17,5%23,2% Bad10,9%16,0%25,8% Very bad3,9%1,9%7,3% Don’t know / no answer4,1%3,8%12,6% The Dutch government oversees [island’s] government. Do you think this is a good or a bad thing?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very important37,3%50,2%48,3% Important53,4%35,5%36,4% Neither important not unimportant 3,4%4,6% Unimportant2,0%7,8%6,0% Very unimportant2,7%0,5%0,7% Don’t know / no answer1,2%1,4%4,0% How important or unimportant do you think it is that children on [island] learn Dutch at school?

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius True73,7%24,3%35,1% False13,9%63,1%47,7% I would rather not say1,2%0,9%6,0% Don’t know / no opinion11,2%11,7%11,3% “Too many Dutch people live on [island]”

Relationship with the Netherlands BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius True80,1%47,7%45,0% False12,8%45,8%39,1% I would rather not say0,5%1,4%6,6% Don’t know / no opinion6,5%5,1%9,3% “Too many other foreigners live on [island]”

Local Politics BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very satisfied0,7%1,4%3,3% Satisfied23,1%32,9%11,9% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied35,9%19,3%15,2% Dissatisfied28,5%30,9%39,7% Very dissatisfied4,4%4,8%13,2% Don’t know / no answer7,4%10,6%16,6% Are you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with how democracy works on [island]?

Local Politics BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius True64,1%56,9%51,7% False16,7%25,2% I would rather not say3,2%2,0%8,6% Don’t know / no opinion16,0%15,8%14,6% “Most [island] politicians work more for themselves than for the general good of voters”

Local Politics BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius True19,7%27,6%17,0% False55,2%47,2%53,7% I would rather not say3,0% 15,0% Don’t know / no opinion22,2%22,1%14,3% “Most [island’s] politicians can be trusted”

RCN BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very good4,1%3,2%9,2% Good30,4%35,6%19,7% Neither good nor bad24,2%10,5%13,8% Bad4,8%9,6%10,5% Very bad2,2%1,8%2,0% Don’t know / no answer2,9%3,7%11,8% Excluded: don’t know what RCN is31,6%35,6%32,9% Do you think it is a good or a bad thing that the RCN (Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland) carries out government tasks on [island]?

RCN BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Yes – Gilbert Isabella34,9%11,9%14,3% Yes – Other4,9%4,5%3,4% Yes – No name mentioned8,1%9,9%11,6% No50,4%72,3%64,6% No answer1,7%1,5%6,1% Do you know who the Kingdom Representative (Rijksvertegenwoordiger) is?

RCN BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very satisfied14,4%7,8%14,9% Satisfied42,9%46,1%42,6% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied22,2%11,7%14,9% Dissatisfied12,7%21,8%16,9% Very dissatisfied2,4%6,8%2,7% Don’t know / no answer5,4%5,8%8,2% Have you generally been satisfied or dissatisfied with medical care on [island] since 2010?

RCN BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very satisfied1,2%1,5%3,2% Satisfied22,3%22,8%23,0% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied23,8%13,9%23,8% Dissatisfied19,4%38,1%22,2% Very dissatisfied5,1%9,4%3,2% Don’t know / no answer28,2%14,4%24,6% Have you generally been satisfied or dissatisfied with the [island] police since 2010?

RCN BonaireSabaSt. Eustatius Very satisfied4,2%5,0%10,2% Satisfied33,8%37,5%35,2% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied15,8%17,5%10,2% Dissatisfied10,6%18,5%18,0% Very dissatisfied2,0%2,5%1,6% Don’t know / no answer32,8%19,0%25,0% Have you generally been satisfied or dissatisfied with [island] education since 2010?

General Conclusions Significant differences between 3 islands within the Caribbean Netherlands Mixed views on effects of 2010 reforms Ambivalence about role of the Netherlands on the islands Critical stance towards local politics

Comparison with SCP Evaluation (2015) On all islands, growing dissatisfaction with overall situation since 2010 Dissatisfaction is most pronounced on St. Eustatius (65%), followed by Saba and Bonaire (41%) Our conclusions are roughly similar

Comparison with SCP Evaluation (2015) Expectations for the near future: same trend towards less optimism Pessimism most pronounced on Statia (only 25% optimistic) followed by Saba (39%) and Bonaire (49%) Our conclusions are roughly similar, but Saba clearly more optimistic than Bonaire

Comparison with SCP-Evalution (2015) Relatively positive evaluations of health care and education Mixed evaluations of police and tax authorities Negative evaluations of economic development and purchasing power Our conclusions are roughly similar

How Does Our Survey Differ From SCP? Different types of questions More information on: –Status preferences –Local politics –Relationship with the Netherlands –Regional context and contacts –Identity issues –Media

Comparison with 1998 survey Does The Netherlands interfere too much in our governance? –1998: Yes/No – Bonaire 38/52, Saba 13/74, Statia 19/76 –2015: Yes/Neutral/No – Bonaire 15/32/49, Saba 18/18/61, Statia 33/21/31 Does The Netherlands respect us sufficiently? –1998: Yes/No – Bonaire 45/45, Saba 63/23, Statia 50/39 –2015: Yes/Neutral/No – Bonaire 6/21/68, Saba 15/20/54, Statia 6/11/66 Does The Netherlands understand us sufficiently? –1998: Yes/No – Bonaire 26/56, Saba 19/70, Statia 16/80 –2015: Yes/Neutral/No – Bonaire 5/9/83, Saba 10/6/75, Statia 6/9/70

Comparison with 1998 survey Trust in local politicians? –1998: Much/Mixed or None – Bonaire 10/87, Saba 27/64, Statia 18/81 –2015: Yes/No – Bonaire 18/55, Saba 28/47, Statia 17/54 Do you feel attached to The Netherlands? –1998: Yes/No – Bonaire 84/14, Saba 80/18, Statia 81/18 –2015: Bonairians clearly feel more attached to The Netherlands (2/3) than Sabans and Statians (1/3). In addition, Bonairians feel strongly attached to Aruba and Curaçao, while Sabans and Statians feel primarily attached to St. Maarten

Questions and Discussion