Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Observed Temperature Trends Little Ice Age

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan How is energy transferred in the atmosphere? Energy Balance Radiation Conduction Convection Advection Latent Heat

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Solar shortwave radiation is centered at 0.5 µm wavelength Radiation 1 µm = m animate

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Visible (shortwave) Radiation Infrared (longwave) Source: The Weather Underground

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Visible (shortwave) Radiation Infrared (longwave) Source: The Weather Underground

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Earth longwave radiation centered at 10 µm wavelength Radiation

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Radiation Longwave radiation (watts/meter 2 ) Source: The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (NASA)

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Conduction is the movement of heat through a substance by the collision of molecules. At the place where the two object touch, the faster-moving molecules of the warmer object collide with the slower moving molecules of the cooler object. As they collide, the faster molecules give up some of their energy the slower molecules. Conduction

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Convection transmits energy through motion in the fluid Convection/Advection

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Latent Heat WATER WATER VAPOR ICE MELTING (-80 cal/gm) FREEZING (+80 cal/gm) EVAPORATION (-600 cal/gm) CONDENSATION (+600 cal/gm) SUBLIMATION (-680 cal/gm) DEPOSITION (+680 cal/gm)

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget Albedo = 30/100

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Convection Evaporation Infrared Lost Infrared Gained -96 (+44)(+21)(-96)(+0)

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget animate Shortwave energy per square meter will decrease at lower sun angles and shorter daylight periods.

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget Temperature changes due to imbalance between energy gains and losses.

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan QUIZ! Last Updated: March 4, 2016 On a scale of 0 - 1,000,000: How many more years of oil reserves does the world have? YEARS

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Oil Reserves Last Updated: March 4, 2016 “Hubbert Curve” CO 2 Concentration

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Greenhouse Gases 1. Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 2. Methane (CH 4 ) 3. Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) 4. Ozone (O 3 ) 5. CFC’s The Players Last Updated: March 4, 2016

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Last Updated: March 4, 2016

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Changes in CO 2 ( YBP) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Trends NOW

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Trends NOW Changes in CO 2 ( YBP)

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Methane (CH 4 )

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Methane (CH 4 ) Trends

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) Trends

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Trends

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Includes only solar and volcanic forcings

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Forecasting Includes only anthropogenic forcings

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Includes all forcings

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Emission Scenarios A1.A future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. A2.A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Emission Scenarios B1.Describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in A1, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. B2.Describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the A1 and B1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan CO 2 Forecasting Emission Scenarios: Emissions Concentration

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan CH 4 Forecasting Emission Scenarios:

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan SO 2 Emissions Forecasting Emission Scenarios:

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Change in temperature (°C) by 2025

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Difference in temperature (°C) to Scenario A2

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Difference in temperature (°C) to Scenario B2

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Project Topics Uncertainties in Climate Forecasting: High clouds Low clouds Physical Effects of Climate Change Drought Floods El Niño? Supercanes? Lightning Sea Level Cryosphere

Climate Modeling and Forecasts for the Future Climate Modeling Summary Forecasts Issues ©2001, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Summary Driving Questions 1. The composition of the atmosphere has changed quite naturally in the past. a) How did that happen? Keywords: Outgassing Chemical weathering Photosynthesis Photolysis Oxidation