The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China Zhong Zhao China Center for Economic Research Peking University August 2, 2004 Prepared for The workshop on “Determinants of Health Longevity in China” at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, August 2-4, 2004

Outline I. Introduction II. Relevant Studies III. Data Set and Description Statistics IV. Estimations and Findings V. Conclusions

I. Introduction The percentage of population over 65 –1982: 4.91% –1990: 5.57% –2000: 6.96% –Aging Society: 7% Population of the Oldest-Old (age over 80) –2000: 13 millions –2050: millions (projected by Han and Yao, 2001)

II. Relevant Studies Economists: Clark et al. (1978), Hurd (1990) Vaupel (1998): Overview Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2001 Analysis of the Determinants of Healthy Longevity, eds. Zeng et al Xu and Gu (2001): Rural-urban difference Wang and Zeng (2001): Gender and Activities of Daily Living (ADL) Lu and Chu (2004): Economic factors and ADL Wu and Zhan (2004): Diet and Health Gu (2004): Smoking, drinking and longevity This paper : Economic factors, health and longevity

III. Data Set and Description Statistics Data Set –Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) Description Statistics –Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status –Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender –Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status

Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status (ADL)(%) VariablesWhole Sample ActiveMild DisabilitySevere Disability Female Han Nationality Born in Urban Boiling Water Finance-Self Finance-Government Enough Money Adequate Med. Service Now Adequate Med. Service in Childhood Gov. Pay Med. Cost Hungry in Childhood

Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender (%) VariablesMaleFemale AllActiveMild Dis. Severe Dis. AllActiveMild Dis. Severe Dis. Han Nationality Born in Urban Boiling Water Finance-Self Finance- Government Enough Money Adequate Med. Service Now Adequate Med. Service in Childhood Gov. Pay Med. Cost Hungry in Childhood

Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status (%) VariablesAllMaleFemale Live in 02 Dead in 02 AllLive in 02 Dead in 02 AllLive in 02 Dead in 02 Female Han Nationality Born in Urban Boiling Water Finance-Self Finance-Government Enough Money Adequate Med. Service Now Adequate Med. Service in Childhood Gov. Pay Med. Cost Hungry in Childhood

IV. Estimations and Findings Health Outcome: Multivariate Regression –Dependent variables: Activities of Daily Living (ADL). Three categories: active, mild disability and severe disability Mortality: Probit Model –Dependent variables: binary indictor-survival in 2002 or not

Table 4. Multivariate Regression for Health Status Variables AllMaleFemale Coeff.P-ValueCoeff.P-ValueCoeff.P-Value Constant < < <.0001 Female <.0001 Han Nationality Born in Urban Boiling Water Finance-Self Finance-Government Enough Money Adequate Med. Service Now Adequate Med. Service in Childhood Gov. Pay Med. Cost Hungry in Childhood

Table 5. Mortality Analysis by Probit Model Variables AllMaleFemale Coeff.P-ValueCoeff. P-Value Coeff.P-Value Constant Female Han Nationality Born in Urban Boiling Water Finance-Self Finance-Government Enough Money Adequate Med. Service Now Adequate Med. Service in Childhood Gov. Pay Med. Cost Hungry in Childhood

V. Conclusions Health care condition at childhood has no significant effect on the mortality, but has significant effect on the health of the oldest-old. Financial self sufficiency is beneficial for the successful aging and health of the oldest-old, but not for the survival of the oldest-old. Though there are more female oldest-olds than male oldest-olds, the health of female oldest-olds are worse than the health of the male oldest-old. Gender has a significant effect on health status, but not on mortality.