1 Evaluating Safety Performance by Segment Tom Keane Economist Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Traffic Records Forum July 27, 2004 Motor Carrier Industry Profile Study

Which commodity segments are the safest (and least safe)? Do results hold over time? Are differences statistically significant? Objectives

Motor Carrier Industry Profile Study Building Materials Dry Bulk Refrig. Foods Household Goods Intermodal Large Machinery Passenger Produce Tank General Freight Commodity Segments

Motor Carrier Industry Profile Study MCMIS Driver OOS Rate * Vehicle OOS Rate * Fatal Crash Rate Total Crash Rate Safestat Driver SEA** Vehicle SEA** Accident SEA** Enforcement Severity Safety Mgmt Review *Out-of-Service (OOS) Rate ** Safety Evaluation Area (SEA) Score Data Sources

Motor Carrier Industry Profile Study Calculate means (avg) For each segment For each of 9 measures Compare means across segments, for each measure Multiple Comparisons (statistical) Testing 95% confidence level Rank Segments by Mean Scores “B” = best performer “W” = worst performer Analytical Approach

Sample 2002 Results BusTankHH Goods Inter- modal Driver SEABW DOOS RateBW Vehicle SEABW VOOS RateBB Accident SEABWB Tot Crash RateB

Sample 3-Yr Results ( ) YearBusTankHH Goods Inter- modal BulkProduce 2002BbWww 2001Bbwww 2000BwWwW * Upper case “B” or “W” denotes significantly better or worse performance than peers

INDUSTRY PROFILE STUDY How are results being used? Regulatory development Passenger Carriers - crash profile Studies for Reauthorization Intermodal Carriers – vehicle condition

3-Year Results ( ) “Safer” segments Bus Tank “Less safe” segments HH Goods Intermodal Produce Bulk Overall Rankings are qualitative & relative Conclusions

10 Motor Carrier Industry Profile Study Under “Current Reports & Results” Tom Keane Phone: (202)