Yuhei Takaya, JMA. Dehradun Ground Observations Dehradun [78E, 30N] max. temp. ave. temp.precip. Temperature (deg C) daily accumulated precip. (mm) 358.

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Presentation transcript:

Yuhei Takaya, JMA

Dehradun Ground Observations Dehradun [78E, 30N] max. temp. ave. temp.precip. Temperature (deg C) daily accumulated precip. (mm) 358 mm on 16 June Dehradun Precipitation on 16 June 2013 New Delhi

CMAP Pentad Precipitation Analysis June 2013 Box: 70-85E 25-40N mm/day

Explanation of Figures CMAP analysis 5-day average Figures over each panel show the maximum precipitation rate (mm/day) in the box area. Purple boxes indicate members of the maximum precipitation > 30 [mm/day]. Box: 70-85E 25-40N

Historical Precipitation Analysis 30 June 25 June 20 June 15 June 10 June 5 June

2013 North India Flood Historical Precipitation Analysis (CMAP)

30 July 25 July 20 July 15 July 10 July 5 July Historical Precipitation Analysis (CMAP)

30 July 25 July 20 July 15 July 10 July 5 July 2010 Pakistan flood Historical Precipitation Analysis (CMAP)

Dehradun Warning Map Using Extreme Forecast Index (3-day average, Initial date: 10 June 2013) Warning Map (Based on EFIR, Zsótér 2006) EPSgram at New Delhi The 3-day accumulated (15-17 June) precipitation (blue boxes indicating a 20-80% range of ensemble forecasts) is above model climatology (orange: 20-80%). from Satoko Matsueda EFIR > 0.8 Precipitation [mm/3day] EFIR > 0.5

Dehradun Warning Map Using Extreme Forecast Index (3-day average, Initial date: 6 June 2013) Warning Map (Based on EFIR, Zsótér 2006) EPSgram at New Delhi The 3-day accumulated (15-17 June) precipitation (blue boxes indicating a 20-80% range of ensemble forecasts) is above model climatology (orange: 20-80%). from Satoko Matsueda EFIR > 0.8 Precipitation [mm/3day] EFIR > 0.5

Dehradun Warning Map Using Extreme Forecast Index (7-day average, Initial date: 6 June 2013) Warning Map (Based on EFIR, Zsótér 2006) EPSgram at New Delhi The 7-day accumulated (12-18 June) precipitation (blue boxes indicating a 20-80% range of ensemble forecasts) is above model climatology (orange: 20-80%). SYNOP obs: 82 mm from Satoko Matsueda EFIR > 0.8 Precipitation [mm/7day] EFIR > 0.5

Initial date: 13 June 2013

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 13 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 13 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 13 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

Initial date: 6 June 2013

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 6 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 6 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 6 June 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

Initial date: 30 May 2013

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 30 May 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 30 May 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day

JMA Monthly EPS (Init: 30 May 2013) Averaged Precipitation June mm/day