Report to CLIVAR SSG-14 CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel Gary Meyers (IOP Chair) & Mike McPhaden With Contributions from IOP Members and Friends Buenos Aires, 20 April 2006

IOP History Established in 2004 as a sub-panel of AAMP, after SOCIO Workshop (2000) and IOGOOS conference (2002) Three meetings: 2004 Puna IITM (Joint with AAMP) 2005 Hobart CSIRO Marine 2006 Honolulu IPRC What next??

Progress on Sustained Observing System ● Basin scale mooring array ● Integrated approach to moorings, Argo floats, XBT lines and drifters ● Alternative observational strategies assessed by observing system simulations ● Report: The role of the Indian Ocean in the climate system—implementation plan for sustained observations

Integrated, Multi-platform Ocean Observing System Carbon/hydro cruise High density XBT Frequently repeated XBT Enhanced XBT lines to monitor Indonesian Throughflow, inflow to western boundary, Java upwelling and 10°S thermocline ridge Emphasis on ocean, but will provide surface met data as well Argo floats 3°x 3° Drifters 5°x 5° ~20 real-time tide gauges for IOTWS Regional mooring arrays

Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array *Actual sea days in 2006: involves more than just mooring work

41 Day Cruise 4 ATLAS & 1 ADCP mooring Mooring Implementation ORV Sagar Kanya Cruise 9 October – 17 November 2004 PMEL in collaboration with the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) and the National Center for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR), Goa, India.

Preliminary Results Indo/US TAO Mooring Mixed layer heat balance Surface heat fluxes

Preliminary Results JAMSTEC ADCP Mooring First deployed in 2000; maintained to present Strong intraseasonal variation in ML and thermocline Upward propagation of semiannual Wyrtki Jet Velocity & zonal wind Masumoto et al 2005

Satellite and In Situ Obs  Satellite remote sensing of SST, wind, sea level, ocean color, precipitation, and salinity is critical  Spatial and temporal coverage of surface properties  In situ measurements provide the 3-dimensional perspective  Combined observations used for model validation & development, initialization of climate & weather forecasts, and ocean state estimation. Cloud penetrating capabilities of TMI yields an SST data suitable for intraseasonal analysis

Science Issues (1) Intraseasonal & MJO Variations “Building Block for the Monsoons” Air-sea interaction/mixed layer dynamics are key to understanding and predicting intraseasonal variations Standard deviation DJF TOP: SST (color), wind speed (m/s) BOT: SST (color), OLR (W/m 2 ) MJO Process Studies MISMO (Japan) Oct-Dec 2006 CIRENE (France) Jan 2007

Science Issues (1) Intraseasonal & MJO Variations “Building Block for the Monsoons” Do 3-D oceanic processes and active ocean- atmosphere coupling occur in intraseasonal events? Subsurface preconditioning in GFDL coupled model (Vecchi) m anomalous temperature preceding strong intraseasonal events

Science Issues (2) SST and Ocean Dynamics Java upwelling Somalia upwelling 10°S thermocline ridge Ocean dynamics (e.g. Rossby and Kelvin waves; Ekman flows) strongly affect SST in three regions

Science Issues (3) Indian Ocean Dipole There are “stochastic” and “deterministic” dipoles.

Science Issues (4) Predictability of SW Indian Ocean So far the most skill is in the SW but it is less than the skill in ENSO prediction. Skill >0.6 shaded Luo et al. 2005

Science Issues (5) Decadal Trends in SST 1900 TO TO 1999

Science Issues (5) Decadal Trends in Fluxes Indian Ocean SST has increased rapidly in recent decades while the net heat flux into the ocean has decreased. What are the dynamical processes in the ocean controlling the SST increase? Lisan Yu, pers.comm.

Science Issues (7) Ocean Circulation and its Relation to SST Cross-equatorial transport carried by -- Somali Current -- Ekman transport What is relative strength of the different upwelling centers? Elongated upwelling dome is a hemispheric Subtropical Cell Schott et al., 2002

Science Issues (8) Subtropical South Indian Ocean “Beyond Monsoons” Connection of Agulhas Current to Subtropical Subduction, ITF, and Western Boundary Currents & MOC: Mean, Variability & Climate Change.

Science Issues (8) Subtropical South Indian Ocean “Beyond Monsoons” ● Subduction off Australia ● Inter-ocean exchange ● Mid-latitude SSTA patterns related to African and Australian climate. Reason et al. 2005

IOP Accomplishments Development and publication of an implementation-plan for a multi-platform, in situ observing system to complement satellite observations, including an overview of the research issues that will be addressed. Enhancement of the mooring array in the central and eastern equatorial regions, and initial results showing monsoon intraseasonal variations in the ocean. Enhancement of the XBT network, in particular with regard to observing variation of oceanic structure associated with Indonesian Throughflow and with inflow to the western boundary cross equatorial currents. Coordination of two research vessel-based process studies by Japan and France to study air-sea interaction in monsoon intraseasonal variations. Integration of data management activity at major facilities in India and Hawaii to provide a comprehensive, single access-site for ocean-climate data. Building awareness and acceptance of the observing system in the region through the Indian Ocean GOOS Regional Alliance (IOGOOS) in particular through a review by high level managers of major agencies with interests in the Indian Ocean liaison with regional coastal interests Coordination with IOTWS. Engaging the ocean-modeling community, in particular with regard to observing system simulations to estimate the observational errors in the planned arrays. Engaging the broader climate-community to explore what phenomena need to be observed.

Proposed New TOR for IOP (1) PREAMBLE: The need for high-quality ocean observations is shared by research (CLIVAR) and ocean applications and services (GOOS) and there is a shared conviction that, together, the ocean community should endeavour to establish the basis for a comprehensive ocean observation network and oversee the staged implementation of a sustainable ocean observing system for the Indian Ocean. The current membership of IOP agrees that a new Panel will be established and supported by CLIVAR and GOOS (through Indian Ocean GOOS and the Perth Office of the IOC) with the following Terms of Reference.

Proposed New TOR for IOP (2) 1. Provide scientific and technical oversight for implementation of a sustained ocean observing system for the Indian Ocean following the plans in WCRP Informal Report No. 5/2006 and GOOS Report no. 152, in particular with regard to: --Promotion and implementation of the basin-scale mooring array, working in closer collaboration with GEOSS, JCOMM and other bodies. --Testing, planning and coordination of an integrated, multi-platform approach to the observing system in collaboration with GODAE, GSOP and other bodies. --Establishing links to coastal applications through the IOGOOS Regional Alliance. --Encouraging new participants in the observing system by demonstrating usefulness of the implementation already accomplished. --Identifying and utilizing synergies with the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, in particular with regard to advocating a multi- hazard approach that integrates tsunami warning with other weather related threats.

Proposed New TOR for IOP (3) 2. Coordinate and plan research on the role of the Indian Ocean in the climate system in collaboration with other CLIVAR Panels and OOPC with a focus on describing, understanding, modeling and predicting intraseasonal, monsoonal, interannual and decadal oceanic processes and their relationship to climate impacts on all the surrounding continents. 3. Liaise with biogeochemical and ecological research programs and identify opportunities to understand the relationships between climate- and biogeochemical research. 4. In collaboration with IRI and local experts in each region of interest, identify the societal impacts of climate and oceanic variation that require Indian Ocean observations as a foundation for management and amelioration. 5. Rotate up to 30% of the Panel membership each year in order to acquire the skills necessary to address the evolving development of the observing system. 6. Advise the CLIVAR SSG on Indian Ocean climate research and report to GOOS through the IOC Perth Office.

ThankYou Merci Gracias Grazie Obrigado Danke DankU Arrigato TerimaKasih XieXie Shukriyaa Ahsante