Still under the influence of a stalled shear line, which produced about a quarter inch of rain during several showery periods since 12Z last night. Winds.

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Presentation transcript:

Still under the influence of a stalled shear line, which produced about a quarter inch of rain during several showery periods since 12Z last night. Winds NE at about 13 kts, but showery periods produced gusts to 20 knots. Another shear line seen in ASCAT winds is near 150, propagating westward. It looks to reach Guam by approximately takeoff time tomorrow. The tropical disturbance is a closed circulation at about 150E, 4N. As expected, it has not moved very much in the past 12 hours. Convection has weakened since last night. Progs still indicate a northwestward movement, reaching (149.5E,7.5N) by takeoff tomorrow. Winds in this invest system are about the same, but convection is weaker than in yesterday’s progs. The shear line to our east looks to increase the likelihood of showers at takeoff time tomorrow. This is due to convergence and higher instability (CAPE=500). Moisture at low levels is similar to today, so project that (between showers) ceilings will be above limits. Winds (outside of showers) will be within limits. Landing conditions similar. We are shocked, shocked that models differ on projections of temperatures over Guam tomorrow. Current sounding shows temps at or near limits at 53kft. NCEP suggests warming, GSFC suggests cooling by tomorrow. GSFC cooling due, I think, to overdone tropical disturbance. windcld cover (base)precip Thu takeoff (03AM ) ENE 10 knots Lowest cld base 1500 ft -few No icing concern Cirrus ~30kft Scattered clouds 3 kft (exc dur rain) Scattered showers In-flight concerns Tropical disturbance, cld tops 45-55kft, lightning, likely south of 10N landing (10PM) E 10 knots Lowest cld base 1500 ft -- few No icing concern Cirrus ~30kft Scattered clouds 3 kft (exc dur rain) Scattered showers

‘current’ conditions: satellite IR imagery on , ~23UTC (02-19 Wed, ~9AM) Line of precip in our vicinity. Surface cyclone to the SE with conv (cld tops ~50 kft w/ lightning near 5N, 150E)

‘current’ conditions: radar on , ~23UTC (02-19 Wed, ~9AM) Isolated showers within 50 nmi of Guam this morning

‘current’ conditions: sounding on , 12UTC (02-18 Tue10PM) tropopause C ( K) at ~56.3 kft

Thu take-off conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on , 18UTC (02-20 Thu, 04AM) NE 15 knt Surface cyclone SE of Guam (8N, 149E). Scattered showers

Thu take-off conditions (GFS): 850mb RH & winds on , 18UTC (02-20 Thu, 04AM) Moisture conditions about the same as today.

Thu landing conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on , 12UTC (02-20 Thu, 10PM) NE 10 knt Continued scattered showers.

Thu take-off conditions (NCAR): soundings on , 18UTC (02-20 Thu, 03AM) Take Off: Moist layer hPa Landing: Moist layer hPa

Thu midflight conditions (GFS): high clouds & 150mb winds on , 00UTC (02-20 Thu, 9AM) convective precip (cld tops ~ 50 kft) 150E to165E and 10N

Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5): Minimum Temperature on , 06UTC (02-20 Thu, 4PM)