DP - Deterrence Three meanings of deterrence: Specific deterrence – one person General deterrence - deters others Theory - "logically" punishment should deter Marginal deterrence - statistical Research - how much change, if any?

DP - Deterrence Traditionally, general deterrence has been the main justification for the DP - the idea is that criminals should be executed to prevent crime – fear of punishment “should “ lead to “second thoughts” by potential criminals.

DP - Deterrence Theory of deterrence is philosophical - based on “ rational man ” view of “ human nature ” Humans consciously weigh alternatives and make rational choices based on costs and benefits ( “ pain and pleasure ” in some older versions).

DP - Deterrence Criminologists have long pointed out that many different social factors influence homicides and homicide rates and that “ rational man ” ideas and deterrence theory are overly simplistic... and that most human behavior is either routine/unconscious or impulsive ---- not rational!!

DP - Deterrence Meanwhile, most research has found that deterrence doesn ’ t work in practice - virtually all older studies failed to find deterrent effects of any legal policies - and other research indicates that punishment in general has a mixed impact on behavior - often making problems worse rather than better. SHORT TERM/LONG TERM EFFECTS

DP - Deterrence Most academic “ debates ” regarding the theories of deterrence have involved the “ philosophy ” on one side (deterrence should work) and “ the research ” on the other side (deterrence doesn ’ t work). Meanwhile, there is another theory that has been mostly ignored by both sides.

DP - Deterrence Brutalization Theory refers to a mixed set of claims (and sometimes research) that the DP/executions actually lead to increases in homicides. Karl Marx George Hunt “ Culture of violence ” theories

DP - Deterrence Deterrence research before the 1990s: Contiguous states studies Before and after studies Econometric studies Inconclusive results – no evidence of deterrence William Bowers 1980 reexamined data - discuss!

DP - Deterrence Breakthrough research in the 1990s -- Cochran, Chamlin Oklahoma study Hypothesis that both theories correct -- Executions might deter “rational homicides” -- and lead to more “impulsive homicides”

DP - Deterrence “Disaggregation” “Rational” and “Impulsive” homicides Example: Felony vs Stranger (Also age, type of weapon, etc.) Their Results 

DP - Deterrence FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports made more/better studies possible -- data on many characteristics of homicides Our studies of Arizona & Calif -- Before/After Return to execution

DP - Deterrence First, we basically replicated the Okla categories Table compares findings

DP - Deterrence But then we added two more analyses: Race and Race Combinations (explain rationale)

DP - Deterrence And then age - with most interesting results

DP - Deterrence Although homicide rates had been dropping in Arizona before the Harding execution, we found increases in every category following the return to execution in Arizona -- But, consistent with Brut Theo, the biggest incr by far were impulsive homs!! especially teens!!

DP - Deterrence We also had FBI-SHR data for California, so we decided to replicate our Arizona study and expand it to a few more areas. SHR Data most complete for city of L.A. Robert Alton Harris and Calif’s return to execution

DP - Deterrence Here are the overall results

DP - Deterrence There is some evidence (old and recent) that there might be short term deterrent effects of executions even if in the long run homicides increase - so we tested that too - the “death dip” hypothesis.

DP - Deterrence We now had a set of basic patterns Rational - death dip then return to normal Impulsive - no death dip, large increases Very large increases among teens!! Then we went looking for more evidence - and found a report on teen hom rates - we added the info on DP and executions

DP - Deterrence Then a couple of years later, a new study appeared using a different method -- a huge contiguous counties study that found consistently higher homicide rates in counties in states that execute. explain methodology

DP - Deterrence Meanwhile, there was a series of school shootings that erupted across the country -- by juveniles -- every one of the school shootings was in a state that executed!! Coincidence???

DP - Deterrence Bottom Line: No overall deterrent effect Likely small short term decreases Long term larger increases, esp teens

DP - Deterrence Comment on recent econometric studies

DP - Deterrence Two more points (to complicate things!!): Death dip and “scheduled executions” Policy mistakes from short term dip

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