NAESB GEH Forum Dan Buckner Director of Fuels Origination and Strategic Development.

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Presentation transcript:

NAESB GEH Forum Dan Buckner Director of Fuels Origination and Strategic Development

2 Who is ACES ACES is a Nationwide Energy Management Company We Help Our Clients Buy, Sell, and Manage Energy More Efficiently, With Less Risk

3 ACES Today Portfolio Management Overview – Manage Resources in PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ERCOT – 50,000 MW of Generation From 300 Plants – 50,000 MW of Load – 3.0 Bcf/Day Peak Natural Gas – Active on 30 Natural Gas Pipelines Four Regional Trading Centers: – Indiana, Minnesota, North Carolina, & Arizona

4 ACES Today RTC Customers Members Inactive Customers Customer Load Member Load Inactive Customer Load

5 Review: FERC Activity March 2014: FERC Issues NOPR – “To Better Coordinate the Scheduling of Natural Gas and Electricity Markets in Light of Increased Reliance on Natural Gas For Electric Generation” April 2015: FERC Issues Final Rule – Later Deadline For Timely Nomination Cycle – Adds 1 Additional Intraday Nomination Cycle – No Change to the Gas Day Start Time (10 a.m. EPT) – ISOs/RTOs Required to Align Their DA and RAC/RUC Unit Commitment Schedules in Advance of the Timely and Evening Cycles; or Show Cause Source: Source: FERC Gas Day Final Rule (Order No. 809)

6 Natural Gas Timeline Changes Natural Gas Scheduling Timeline (EPT)Current TimesRevised Times Timely Nomination Cycle Deadline12:30 p.m.2:00 p.m. Gas Flow Begins10:00 a.m. Evening Nomination Cycle Deadline7:00 p.m. Gas Flow Begins10:00 a.m. Intraday 1 Nomination Cycle Deadline11:00 a.m. Gas Flow Begins6:00 p.m.3:00 p.m. IT Bump RightsYes Intraday 2 Nomination Cycle Deadline6:00 p.m.3:30 p.m. Gas Flow Begins10:00 p.m.7:00 p.m. IT Bump RightsNoYes Intraday 3 Nomination Cycle Deadline8:00 p.m. Gas Flow Begins11:00 p.m. IT Bump RightsNo Source: Source: FERC Gas Day Final Rule (Order No. 809)

7 Day-Ahead Timelines Processing Times For DA Energy Markets Are Different Across Markets, Driving the Different Timelines Effective Date Refers to DA Timeline Changes – Not Electric Operating Day FERC Has Yet to Rule on MISO’s Proposed Effective Date SPP May Need to Clarify With FERC Regarding the Effective Date RTO Effective Date* Old DA Submittal New DA Submittal Old DA Results New DA Results PJM3/31/1612:00 p.m. EPT10:30 a.m. EPT4:00 p.m. EPT1:30 p.m. EPT MISO11/5/16*11:00 a.m. EST10:30 a.m. EPT3:00 p.m. EST1:30 p.m. EPT SPP10/1/16*12:00 p.m. EPT10:30 a.m. EPT5:00 p.m. EPT3:00 p.m. EPT

8 PJM (All Times EPT) RTOEffective DateGas TradingDA BidsDA AwardsTimely Cycle PJM3/31/168:00 – 10:00 a.m.*10:30 a.m.1:30 p.m.*2:00 p.m. Will Gas Markets Change? – Tight Execution Window – Services, Trading Window, Etc. Purchase Gas For DA Award in Timely Cycle? – Peak Days - May Help With Priority on Pipeline? – DA Award is Not Necessarily an RT Dispatch, Could Impact Strategy RTORebid PeriodRAC ResultsNomination Cycle PJM1:30 – 2:15 p.m. (Opening as Early as Awards Post) 3:00 p.m. For Morning Ramp CTs3:30 p.m. (ID2) 6:30 p.m. For Other Plants7:00 p.m. (Evening) RAC Dispatch in PJM is Treated as a RT Dispatch – Designed to Allow For Gas Purchases During Evening Cycle – Definitive Start Time, But Not Definitive Gas Volumes – Tight Execution Window and Market Illiquidity

9 Scheduling Request Why Are We Here? We request that gas and electric industries, through NAESB, explore the potential for faster, computerized scheduling when shippers and confirming parties all submit electronic nominations and confirmations, including a streamlined confirmation process, if necessary. Coordination/Timing Challenges Still Exist Would a Quicker Nominations Process be an Improvement?

Coordination Challenges

11 Generation Profile Challenge Source: ACES

12 Generator Schedule Does not Match Gas Cycle Generator Schedule Provided After Nomination Cycle Deadline Can Quicker Electronic Scheduling Improve Coordination Between These Markets? Timing Challenges Source: ACES

13 Generator Requirements Even Shippers With FT Depend on Interruptible Operational Flexibility From the Pipelines to Manage Key Operational Requirements Generator NeedsFirm Transportation Service Quick Start Up CapabilityNot a Firm Right Non-Uniform Hourly Consumption Not a Firm Right Pressure RequirementsSometimes Included After Hours Consumption Change Capability Not a Firm Right

14 Generator Requirements Unfortunately, Pipelines Have a Limited Amount of No-Notice Services Available Generator NeedsFirm No-Notice Services Quick Start Up CapabilityFirm Non-Uniform Hourly Consumption Typically Allowed Pressure RequirementsSometimes Included After Hours Consumption Change Capability Firm

15 MISO Winter Generator Fuel Survey (Dec 2015) – 13% of Generators Relied on FT Only Interruptible Services Source: MISO

16 PJM Gas-Fired Generation (2014 EIPC Study) – 60% Do Not Have FT or Dual Fuel (Rely on IT) – 25% Have Dual Fuel – 15% Have FT PJM’s Capacity Performance – Provides Some Recovery of Pipeline Costs $ Amount Determined by Auction Cleared 1 Year at a Time – Pipeline Expansion Projects Require Multiyear Service Agreements/Cost Recovery Interruptible Services

17 Interruptible Flexibility Power Generators Rely on This Interruptible Operational Flexibility – For Quick Starts – For Non-Uniform Hourly Consumption – To Allow for Changes After Hours On Many Pipelines, These Services Have Been Highly Reliable Forcing Pipelines to Process Quicker May Result in Decreased Operational Flexibility

18 Impacts of Quicker Scheduling Quicker Scheduling MIGHT Provide Increased Operational Flexibility – Better Coordination with Dispatch Timing Quicker Scheduling MIGHT Reduce Operational Flexibility – Less Time to Determine if Interruptible Operational Flexibility is Available Limited Firm Services Available to Provide the Required Operational Flexibility – Electric Generators Cannot Lose This Operational Flexibility

19 Summary Coordination/Timing Challenges Remain Generators Rely on Interruptible Services – Firm Transportation Does not Provide Sufficient Operational Flexibility – No-Notice Services are Limited and Expensive Gaining Quicker Electronic Coordination, But Losing the Interruptible Operational Flexibility Would Impact Reliability Proceed with Caution