Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Political Action

Key Terms   Demography-the science of population changes   Census-the most valuable method for understanding demographic changes in America; occurs every 10 years -reapportionment   Public opinion-the distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues.  Political culture-  Political culture-an overall set of values widely shared within a society.

“Minority Majority”   America will soon cease to have a white majority and together the minority groups will become a majority   The largest component of the minority majority concept: Hispanic population

Simpson-Mazzoli Act   represented a crackdown on illegal aliens by requiring that employers document the citizenship or legitimate immigrant status of workers or pay stiff fines.

How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization  Political Socialization:  “the process through which an individual acquires [their] particular political orientation”  Orientation grow firmer with age  The Process of Political Socialization  The Family  Political leanings of children often mirror their parents’ leanings

How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization  The Process of Political Socialization (continued)  The Mass Media  Chief source of information as children age  Generation gap in viewing television news  School  Used by government to socialize young into political culture  Better-educated citizens are more likely to vote and are more knowledgeable about politics and policy.  Political Learning Over a Lifetime  Aging increases political participation and strength of party attachment.

Measuring Public Opinion   Public opinion polling began in 1932 by George Gallup  How Polls Are Conducted  Sample: a small proportion of people who are chosen in a survey to be representative of the whole; minimum of 1000 required for a faithfully represented sample size  Random Sampling: the key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers which operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample  Sampling Error: the level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information  The Role of Polls in American Democracy  Polls help politicians detect public preferences.  But critics say polls make politicians think more about following than leading public  Polls may distort election process  Rise of polling analysis and collection of polling data For example: FiveThirtyEight, TPM PollTracker, HuffPost Pollster, the RealClearPolitics Average, and the Princeton Election Consortium

Election 2012 Outcome Most Accurate Poll Ranking 1. Democracy Corps (D) * 2. Pew Research 2. Hartford Courant/UConn 3. ABC/WP 4. Angus-Reid 5. National Journal* 6. Ipsos/Reuters 7. YouGov 8. PPP (D) 8. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP 9. Purple Strategies 10. NBC/WSJ 10. CBS/NYT 10. YouGov/Economist 11. UPI/CVOTER 12. IBD/TIPP 13. CNN/ORC 13. Monmouth/SurveyUSA 13. Politico/GWU/Battleground 13. Fox News 13. Washington Times/JZ Analytics 13. American Research Group 13. Gravis Marketing 14. Rasmussen 14. Gallup 15. NPR 16. AP/GfK Source: Final Report 1/3/2013 by Fordham University Study of polling accuracy from 2012 pre-election estimates

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information  The Role of Polls in American Democracy  Exit Polls: used by the media to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did.  National Election Pool (NEP) consists of ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX News, and NBC conduct a joint election exit poll.  2000 presidential election in Florida  Question wording may affect survey results

How Americans Participate in Politics  Political Participation: all the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue  Conventional Participation  Voting in elections  Working in campaigns or running for office  Contacting elected officials  Running for office

How Americans Participate in Politics  Protest as Participation  Protest: a form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics  Civil disobedience: a form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences