California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016-2026 Revised Electricity Forecast: LADWP Planning Area December 17, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand Revised Electricity Forecast: LADWP Planning Area December 17, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary Drop in electricity consumption in mid case not as severe as for IOUs because of less impact from new standards Sales forecast reduced compared to CEDU 2014 because of higher PV forecast New mid case peak forecast matches CEDU 2014 in 2026 because of higher starting point 2

California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Electricity Consumption CED 2015 Preliminary mid case slightly below CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 (~400 GWh) 3

California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0.47% per year ( ) compared to 0.97% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Peak Demand Higher weather-normalized starting point, lower growth in new mid case vs. CED

California Energy Commission LADWP PV Energy CED 2015 Revised mid case more than double CEDU 2014 mid case in

California Energy Commission LADWP PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Revised mid case corresponds to around 450 MW capacity in

California Energy Commission LADWP Light-Duty EV Energy Corresponds to around 250,000 EVs in 2026 in the mid case 8

California Energy Commission LADWP Committed Efficiency Around 3,500 GWh savings from codes and standards in

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +145 GWh in 2014, +40 GWh in

California Energy Commission Additional Impacts Climate change –25 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 33 GWh in high case –40 MW in 2026 in mid case, 65 MW in high case Electrification: 165 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 300 GWh in high case 11

California Energy Commission Growth in Electricity Consumption by Climate Zone, Climate ZoneCoastalInland High Case 1.04%1.11% Mid Case 0.62%0.78% Low Case 0.01%0.24% 12

California Energy Commission Growth in Peak Demand by Climate Zone, Climate ZoneCoastalInland High Case 0.86%0.99% Mid Case 0.40%0.61% Low Case -0.58%-0.20% 13

California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: Peak MW YearHigh-LowMid-MidLow-High

California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: GWh YearHigh-LowMid-MidLow-High ,6771,8921, ,9352,3782,396 15

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on LADWP Baseline Mid Case Sales, Mid AAEE Savings 16

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on LADWP Baseline Mid Case Peak, Mid AAEE Savings 17

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