An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Cap. Davide MELFI ITALIAN AIR FORCE MET SERVICE C.N.M.C.A. Satellite Branch Convection Workshop Landshut, Germany, 8-10 October 2009

OUTLINE The model: NEFODINA Case study NEFODINA vs Lightening An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA NEFODINA Rapidscan Conclusions and future works

ALGORITHM GRIB FILE Model Fields New Output Filter WV2 (t) WV1 (t) Pre-elaboration data Detection of Cloudy Cluster Static Analysis Cross AnalysisDynamic Analysis Evolution Forecast Grafic Output MEDITERRANEAN AREA Grafic Output ITALY ASCII File convective cells ITALY ASCII File convective cells MEDITERRANEAN AREA Neural Network Output Calibration

Classification ClassesDuration Linear Dim. (Km/pixels) Area (Km 2 /pixels) Single Cell30-50 min.5-10 / / 1-3 Multicell Thunderstorm Squall line 2-6 hours20-30 / / 8-20 Supercell1-6 hours20-30 / / 8-20 Mesoscale convective system 6-12 hours / / An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

Case study: 2 July 2009 SINGLE CELLS Case study: 03 Agoust 2009 MULTICELL Case study: 23 September 2009 SUPERCELL First derivative for decay/development

Preliminary results of a study on spatial and temporal distribution of lightning. Single cell convective system in the North of Italy in 2 September 2009 Electrical activity 30 minutes before the first BT minimum Flash distance from the BT minimum vs time Anisotropic spatial distribution of lightning around BT minimum Flash position compared to the first BT minimum placed in (0,0)

An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Rapidscan Service Second derivative: convection’s acceleration

An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA Conclusions and future works NEFODINA has been developed to detect and forecast the severe convective systems present on the scene and all the convective cells inside these systems. This is an important support for forecasters of the IAFMS who test every day the performance and the reliability of this product. A neural network, build on the basis of a new development/dissolving model, is used to forecast the phase of the detected convective cells. Early warning with second derivative The last three days of data on ftp.meteoam.it Convection and Lightning

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