Wander Jager 1 An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision making: The Consumat II

2 Jacob van Ruisdael (1628/29–1682), Sailing Vessels in a Thunderstorm

Social Complex Systems Ability to learn and adapt Communication is essential Forecast affects outcome 3 Sometimes turbulent periods, where prediction is difficult, but management critical

Social environmental problems Farming Fisheries Transportation Waste Energy use Air quality

Simulation Models Can help in understanding the dynamics of social environmental systems May serve as a testbed for developing policy Behaviour often is the cause but also the solution of problems There is a need to include behaviour in environmental models that - captures some essential behavioural processes - connects behaviour with policy tools

Social simulation The key challenges are - Developing valid rules for agent behaviour based on sound theory -Parameterise models on the basis of empirical data -Validation using e.g. micro-level process data (life histories) 6

Consumat model

Human Needs Subsistence Social Personality 8

Satisfaction of needs Discount function: NyOxt = Σ t..t=n f(t) * (UyOxt) In which: - NyOxt = Need satisfaction of need y (one of the three) for using opportunity Ox at the current time step t - t..t=n is the time frame considered - f(t) describes the decay function if decreased weighting of utility over time -UyOxt = Utility for need y of opportunity x at time t -Uncertainty about future outcomes 9

Decision Making Repetition: consider only the behaviour that one is performing now. Imitation: consider all behavioral options performed by peers (strong links). Inquiring: consider all behaviour performed by all other agents (weak links). Optimising: consider all possible behavioural options available. Here also opportunities are considered that are not yet used by other agents. 10

repetitionoptimising imitation inquiring Satisfaction (involvement) Uncertainty (much information) high low Individual strategies Social strategies LowcognitiveEffortHighcognitiveEffort Decision Making

Communication in simulation models Communication is critical - With whom : social networks, in- and outgoing influence similarity, expertise - How : observation, norms, information, various channels - When : involvement, uncertainty, social relevant outcomes 12 Networks are critical, and can be seen as emerging from interactions. Influencing processes in networks (management) requires an understanding of these interactions, and hence the communication between people

Model implications Emergent and dynamic networks based on similarity Innovation theory is implicit: low importance social needs results in stronger tendency to try new behavioural options. Heterogeneity in needs importance is relevant in describing different types of personalities and/or cultures Simple set of rules that can be applied to many situations

Management In turbulent times classical prediction becomes risky, yet management is essential. Serious gaming: exploring managerial strategies. Flightsimulator: not predicting where you land (or crash) but learning how to navigate to a goal and foresee (early warning) and adapt to threats and chances Changing the attributes of behavioural options and communication strategies 14

A future for policy gaming? A simulation model parametrisized on the basis of empirical data to represent a particular system, e.g Social-ecological Each player is assigned a role (stakeholder), and faces the challenge to reach his/her goal using available strategies

Management of social complex systems Adaptive policy may help in preventing problems! eGovPoliNet The Policy Community