Impact of climate change on the global oceanic sink of CO 2 Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

What can we learn about sink efficiencies from trends in CO 2 airborne fraction ? M. Gloor, J. Sarmiento, N. Gruber University of Leeds, Princeton University,

Advertisements

Some questions in current climate and CO 2 studies.

Global modelled ocean sources and sinks 1.Bergen: Karen Assmann & Christoph Heinze 2.CSIRO: Andrew Lenton 3.ETH: Heather X & Niki Gruber 4.LSCE: Laurent.

Short Background on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases Dr Ruth Nussbaum ProForest Presentation to the RSPO GHG WG2 meeting in Feb 2010.

Atmospheric inversion of CO 2 sources and sinks Northern Hemisphere sink Jay S. Gregg.

Oceanic sources and sinks for atmospheric CO 2 Nicolas Gruber (1), S.E Mikaloff-Fletcher (1), A.Jacobson (2), M. Gloor (2), J. L. Sarmiento (2), T. Takahashi.

1 Margaret Leinen Chief Science Officer Climos Oceans: a carbon sink or sinking ecosystems?

Ocean Biogeochemistry (C, O 2, N, P) Achievements and challenges Nicolas Gruber Environmental Physics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland. Using input from.

Global trends in air-sea CO 2 fluxes based on in situ and satellite products Rik Wanninkhof, NOAA/AOML ACE Ocean Productivity and Carbon Cycle (OPCC) Workshop.

- Perspectivas actuales en el estudio de la evolución del CO2 en la superficie del océano => case studies - Perspectivas actuales en el estudio de la.

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 1 Global Monitoring, Carbon Cycle Science, and.

Changes in the Southern Ocean biological export production over the period Marie-F. Racault, Corinne Le Quéré & Erik Buitenhuis.

Ocean Circulation And Current Carbon Cycle For more detail see the course materials for Lynne Talley’s Course at SIO.

Tropical vs. extratropical terrestrial CO 2 uptake and implications for carbon-climate feedbacks Outline: How we track the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 Historic.

Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources.

CO 2 flux in the North Pacific Alan Cohn May 10, 2006.

Ecosystem composition and CO 2 flux variability Corinne Le Quéré Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany now at University of East Anglia/British.

MODELLING THE FEEDBACKS BETWEEN PHYTOPLANKTON AND GLOBAL OCEAN PHYSICS 1 Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany. 2 University of East Anglia,

Ocean Fluxes in CarbonTracker Andy Jacobson, Taro Takahashi, Colm Sweeney, David Ho, Roger Dargaville, and Rik Wanninkhof Andy Jacobson, Wouter Peters,

The Ocean’s Role in the Carbon Cycle in Relation to Increased Atmospheric CO 2 Paul Loikith.

QUESTIONS 1.How do elements in the lithosphere get transferred to the atmosphere? 2.Imagine an early Earth with a weak Sun and frozen ocean (“snowball.

The Anthropogenic Ocean Carbon Sink Alan Cohn March 29, 2006

The uptake, transport, and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 by the ocean Nicolas Gruber Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & IGPP, UCLA.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

Vulnerability of the ocean biological pump Corinne Le Quéré University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey See notes in individual slides.

Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Flux: What to Consider Scott Doney (WHOI) ASCENDS Science Working Group Meeting (February 2012; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

1 Oceanic sources and sinks for atmospheric CO 2 The Ocean Inversion Contribution Nicolas Gruber 1, Sara Mikaloff Fletcher 2, and Kay Steinkamp 1 1 Environmental.

GEOF236 CHEMICAL OCEANOGRAPHY (HØST 2012) Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Prof. in.

Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre ( ). N. Metzl, A Corbière, G. Reverdin, A.Lenton, T. Takahashi,

The Global Ocean Carbon Cycle Rik Wanninkhof, NOAA/AOML Annual OCO review, June 2007: Celebrating Our Past, Observing our Present, Predicting our Future:

Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget updated to 2006 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field,

Heat Transfer in Earth’s Oceans WOW!, 3 meters of ocean water can hold as much energy as all other Earth Systems combined!

1 Observed physical and bio-geochemical changes in the ocean Nathan Bindoff ACECRC, IASOS, CSIRO MAR University of Tasmania TPAC.

Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.

Understanding the Ocean Carbon Cycle from Atmospheric Measurements of O 2 and CO 2 Andrew Manning, UEA, UK.

Ocean circulation, carbon cycle and oxygen cycle Anand Gnanadesikan FESD Meeting January 13, 2012.

Natural and Anthropogenic Carbon-Climate System Feedbacks Scott C. Doney 1, Keith Lindsay 2, Inez Fung 3 & Jasmin John 3 1-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution;

Heating of the Atmosphere

Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary Partnership between Educators and Researchers for Enhancing Classroom Teaching (GK-12 PERFECT)

Assessment of the current ocean carbon sink and its implications for climate change and mitigation Arne Körtzinger IFM-GEOMAR Kiel, Germany Most relevant.

Helmuth Thomas 1, Friederike Prowe 1,4, Ivan D. Lima 2, Scott C. Doney 2, Rik Wanninkhof 3, Richard Greatbach 1,4, Antoine Corbière 5 & Ute Schuster 6.

1 Observed physical and bio-geochemical changes in the ocean Nathan Bindoff ACECRC, IASOS, CSIRO MAR University of Tasmania TPAC.

The Carbon Cycle within the Oceans Allyn Clarke With much help from Ken Denman, Glen Harrison and others.

UDnFmNTYhttps:// UDnFmNTY gmFa0r04https://

International workshop on Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India September 2011 Pep Canadell*, Prabir Patra.

ATOC 220 Global Carbon Cycle Recent change in atmospheric carbon The global C cycle and why is the contemporary atmospheric C increasing? How much of the.

Interannual Variability in the Extratropical Ocean Carbon System

Long-lived greenhouse gases: air-sea exchange and impact Dorothee Bakker, Peter Landschützer Ute Schuster, Andrew Watson Roughly 90 SOCAT scientists and.

Factors contributing to variability in pCO 2 and omega in the coastal Gulf of Maine. J. Salisbury, D. Vandemark, C. Hunt, C. Sabine, S. Musielewicz and.

Law et al 2008; Matear & Lenton 2008; McNeil & Matear 2008 Impact of historical climate change on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and implications for.

Core Theme 5 – WP 17 Overview on Future Scenarios - Update on WP17 work (5 european modelling groups : IPSL, MPIM, Bern, Bergen, Hadley) - Strong link.

CARBOOCEAN Annual Meeting – Solstrand, Norway 5-9 October 2009 WP17 Highlights: Future Scenarios with coupled carbon-climate models - 5 european modelling.

Doney (2010) The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal

Ralph Keeling Scripps Institution of Oceanography Global oceanic and land carbon sinks from the Scripps flask sampling networks.

European Union integrated project no Variation in atmosphere-ocean fluxes of CO 2 in the Atlantic Ocean: first results from the Carbo-Ocean observing.

HIPPO: Global Carbon Cycle Britton Stephens, NCAR EOL and TIIMES.

Oceans and anthropogenic CO 2 By Monika Kopacz EPS 131.

Overview CARBOOCEAN EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December.

What science is needed for adaptation? “effective adaptation requires a sound physically- based understanding of climate change, often at levels of detail.

What can we learn about biological production and air-sea carbon flux in the Southern Ocean from 12 years of observations in the Drake Passage? Colm Sweeney.

Welcome and Overview CARBOOCEAN (30 minutes) EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 5 th Annual & Final Meeting.

Oceans & Anthropogenic CO 2 V.Y. Chow EPS 131.  CO 2 exchange across sea surfaces in the oceans  Measurement methods of anthropogenic CO 2  Distributions.

Earth2Class Workshops for Teachers Taro Takahashi Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University November 21, 2009 State of Carbon Cycle in 2009.

The Human Component of the Global Carbon Cycle

Pre-anthropogenic C cycle and recent perturbations

Antarctica and climate change

The Oceanic Sink Uptake in the mixed layer

D – H are Negative Emission Technologies

Mitigation: Major Climate Change Can Be Avoided. Warren M

Interactions between the Oceans and the Atmosphere

Presentation transcript:

Impact of climate change on the global oceanic sink of CO 2 Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey

Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007 water energy observed warming trend decadal changes in the earth’s physical system winds

geological reservoirs fossil fuel emissions land use change land sink ocean sink atmosphere CO 2 budget (GtC/y) Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007

decadal trend in the Airborne Fraction  atm CO 2 CO 2 emissions (FF + Land Use) gain of (p = 0.89) time Airborne fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

geological reservoirs fossil fuel emissions land use change land sink ocean sink atmosphere CO 2 budget (GtC/y) Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007

physical transport CO 2 chemical reactions atmosphere ocean biological activity

Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii) Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica)

Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica) atmospheric CO 2 time (y)

Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica) atmospheric CO 2

Atmospheric Inverse Model: C measured ↔ C modeled = Af +c o model and approach: Christian Rödenbeck

CO 2 sink (PgC/y) expected trend Le Quéré, Rödenbeck, Buitenhuis et al change in Southern Ocean CO 2 sink

data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006 deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen. trend in oceanic pCO (uatm/y)

data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006 deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen. trend in oceanic pCO (uatm/y)

PISCES-T ecosystem model 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles limitation by Fe, P, and Si initialise with observations in 1948 (Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006) identifying the processes with the OPA model OPA General Circulation model o x2 o resolution 31 vertical levels calculated vertical mixing NCEP daily forcing

SSMI winds (Wentz et al 2007)updated from Reynolds and Smith (1994) Obs NCEP NCEP 2 Trends SST winds +1°C +0.4 m/s

Obs CO 2 only Trends in ocean pCO 2 (uatm/y) Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

Obs NCEP NCEP 2 Trends in ocean pCO 2 (uatm/y) Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep. CO 2 and climate

CO 2 sink (PgC/y) CO 2 only Time (y) change in Global Ocean CO 2 sink Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep. CO 2 and climate

Atmospheric inversion Ocean model CO 2 and climateCO 2 only globe ± north0.04 ± tropics ± south ± Trend in ocean CO 2 sink (PgC/y per decade, ) difference of 0.20 PgC/y per decade Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

PISCES-T ecosystem model 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles limitation by Fe, P, and Si initialise with observations in 1948 (Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006) identifying the processes with the OPA model OPA General Circulation model o x2 o resolution 31 vertical levels calculated vertical mixing NCEP daily forcing no T effect on CO 2 constant fluxes Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

Climate only combinedtempwindfluxes globe north tropics south Trend in ocean CO 2 sink (PgC/y per decade, ) ~50% of recent trends in ocean CO 2 sink can be attributed to human activities Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

the Airborne Fraction  atm CO 2 CO 2 emissions (FF + Land Use) (p = 0.89) time Airborne fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS trend in airborne fraction: 0.07 PgC/y per decade trend in ocean CO 2 sink from climate (since 1981): 0.20 PgC/y per decade

modelled change in carbon storage (μmol/L) depth (m)

modelled change in surface pH depth (m)

conditions deep ocean C deep = 2260 C surface = 2120 higher winds causes CO 2 outgassing human CO 2 emissions 65ºS 35ºS

conditions under very high atmospheric CO 2 deep ocean C deep = 2260 C surface > 2260 human CO 2 emissions higher winds causes CO 2 uptake 65ºS35ºS

>100 years after CO 2 emissions stop deep ocean C deep =  C C surface =  C higher winds causes CO 2 outgassing 65ºS35ºS

Raupach et al., 2007 fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the world