International Comparison Program Overview and Status Fred Vogel, Global Manager ICP, World Bank

Workshop Goals Review Status of Data Collection –Understand work plan/time table – Exec Board’s reporting requirements Need to reconcile diverging schedules Ring Program—work plan—time table Housing, Health, Education, Gov’t, FCF –Work plan—time table--methodology Tool Pack Executive Board issues and direction Advocacy--Poverty

Executive Board issues for Discussion Progress report to donors Minimum standards for data quality Working paper on Fixity Publication Policy Policy regarding access to –List of products and their specifications –Individual product price observations – Regional National annual average prices by product (also Ring)

New or Updated Material Chapter 8 revised Government services Chapter 10—Basic Heading Parities Chapter 11—The Ring program Chapter 12—Housing and questionnaire Papers available –Equipment and Questionnaire –Construction

Data Collection Status Concerns –Readiness for all items –Time required from getting funding/ and start of data collection Keeping informed –Executive Board direction –Agree on reporting process

Management Principles You cannot manage what you do not know. If you do not know what you do not know, you are in deep trouble If you come to a fork in the road, take it? Management requires having a road map with alternative routes.

Strategy Define Readiness-start-finish Identify warning signs Process to deal with problems –Survey-collection-time table –Data quality—minimum standards Cut-off date for start of data collection

Understanding Readiness CPINON CPI Capital City Overlap Between CPI?ICP? Other Regionss

Readiness-Start-Finish Readiness –Product specs being completed –Translated –Outlets identified –Price collectors recruited trained supervised Start--Monthly—Quarterly by aggregate –Scope—Cap City—Nationwide? –Data Submission—Schedule –Data Submission—raw vs. averages Finish—Regional sign-off BH prices PPPs

Warning Signs Product specs not finalized Data collection—starting by category Data submission—ASAP and schedule Data Quality—standards –#products--#observations –Variability in observations –Timing, availability –Variability in PPPs

Fall back considerations Identify “Essential” Countries –Monitor closely/keep global office informed –Provide/request assistance Identify data to “move” to 2005 annual Capital city vs. National & data to estimate Reduce scope Consumption vs GDP in non essential countries Cut-Off date for data collection—Make judgement on 1 July whether third quarter data can be supplied and how to proceed in non core countries 0,0, zero third quarter—stage 2 0,0, data third quarter—Make judgement,take actions in non core countries

Access Product specifications Individual price observations Average product prices –Urban/rural –outlet Who has access?

Data Quality Standards Within Country –Number of products Priced by basic heading –Number of price observations—time and space –Variability of item prices--outliers Between country –Number of products—depends on BH, situation –Consistency/ variability of price ratios –Consistency/variability of PPPs

Step 7 (a) Compute Basic Heading Parity—simple example

Comparison of Parities

Readiness-Start-Finish Has data collection Started by country? –Product specs being completed –Yes, DK, When? –Waiting for funds –Price collectors-how long before ready? Monthly—Quarterly? Scope—Cap City—Nationwide? Data Submission—Schedule? Data Submission—raw vs. averages

Necessary steps Identify “essential” countries –Monitor closely/keep global office informed –Provide/request assistance Warning signs –Data collection—when starting by Basic heading –Submission of data –Data quality—number of products--number of observations—degree of variability—coverage of outlets--regions –Response to questions and problems

Different collection schedules 2005 is the reference year Joint responsibility –Countries within region on track –Regions on track Cut-off date for data collection to meet publication goals