Fiorina, Peterson, Johnson, and Mayer New American Democracy, Sixth Edition Chapter 5 Public Opinion © 2009, Pearson Education

What Is Public Opinion? The aggregation of people’s views about issues, situations, and public figures Important to democracy –Why? Need not be actively expressed Law of anticipated reactions –Public opinion influences government even though it does so indirectly and passively

© 2009, Pearson Education Sources of Public Opinion Education –Political efficacy Reference Groups The Media Socialization Personal Experiences Self-Interest

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Measuring Public Opinion Sampling Error –error arising in a public opinion survey when relying on a representative, but small, sample of the larger population –Margin of error The answers provided by a random sample of 1500 Americans on any political question would fall within 3 percentage points of national opinion 95 percent of the time.

© 2009, Pearson Education Measuring Public Opinion Selection Bias –The error that occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes –If a survey has selection bias it will NOT be representative of the larger population

© 2009, Pearson Education Measuring Public Opinion Measurement Error –the error that arises from attempting to measure something as subjective as opinion –Opinions are hard to quantify –Answers can vary dramatically depending on how a question is asked –Question wording can be confusing, leading, or oversimplified

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Public Opinion is Uninformed On many issues people have little information, both here and in other countries Information costs are high –These are the time and mental efforts required to absorb and store information, whether from conversations, personal experiences, or the media Characteristics of Public Opinion

© 2009, Pearson Education Public Opinion uninformed but some people do better: –Issue publics: group of people particularly affected by, or concerned with, a specific issue –These people find relevant information valuable and can gather it more cheaply Why does an ignorant America hinder measurement of public opinion? –People answer the questions whether they know anything or not Characteristics of Public Opinion

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Many of the opinions expressed in polls are not strongly held Public may say one thing, but when asked again, may seem to say something else non-attitudes; doorstep opinions Characteristics of Public Opinion

© 2009, Pearson Education Public Opinion is Not Ideological Ideology: A system of beliefs in which one or more organizing principles connect the individual’s views on a wide range of issues –Political elites tend to have ideologies that are well- structured –Mass public: ordinary citizens for whom political involvement is limited usually are NOT ideological Characteristics of Public Opinion

© 2009, Pearson Education Characteristics of Public Opinion Public Opinion is Inconsistent –Sentiments on policy do not always match the principles that people claim to endorse –May not provide a clear mandate Confuse the political debate –Why this inconsistency? Ignorance, inaccurate information, hypocrisy Or perhaps Americans are not absolutists, but rather pragmatists and make trade-offs on a case-by-case basis

© 2009, Pearson Education Governing by Public Opinion Power of Public Opinion –Does it influence public policy? –Public as a whole can be accurate reflection of public’s attitudes and concerns –“mood” of the public; can be rational –in the aggregate = very stable –Clear trends are often followed by government

© 2009, Pearson Education Governing by Public Opinion Limits of Public Opinion –Public does not always get what it wants –Small, vocal, and influential groups can sway congressional action

© 2009, Pearson Education Governing by Public Opinion Example: Gun control –NRA versus a public that favors limits on guns –Theory: Public opinion in voting districts mattered most to members of Congress Gun control was not a highly salient public opinion issue anti-gun lobby not as intense as pro-gun lobby Cultural factors

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