Federal Aviation Administration 1 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team (JHSAT) Program Overview/Status Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110

Federal Aviation Administration 2 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JHSAT Overview/Status Topics Process lineage Process overview/timing expectations Team composition Dataset selection Using existing helicopter safety reports Measuring the results

Federal Aviation Administration 3 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JHSAT Goal: Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016.

Federal Aviation Administration 4 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Process Lineage

Federal Aviation Administration 5 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 In the U.S., our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety 1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal 1.2The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards 5.3-2

Federal Aviation Administration 6 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world 5.3-3

Federal Aviation Administration 7 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 In Response Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) was created, adopted concepts of Boeings Accident Prevention Strategy (APS) APS refined for use with CAST problem set Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies initiatives were combined into CAST CAST supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition IHST initiative will be driven by the same process that produced measurable success in the part 121 arena

Federal Aviation Administration 8 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 CAST Goals l Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 l Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, manufacturers, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate IHST initiative driving for same level of helicopter accident reduction by 2017

Federal Aviation Administration 9 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 So how will this help helicopters? Mature and flexible process ready for use in analysis of helicopter accidents Leverage helicopter community key experts and stakeholders Process recognized internationally by industry and regulators Proven track record in reducing hazardous events Results tracked by targeted metrics

Federal Aviation Administration 10 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JHSAT Team Members Jack Drake (HAI) JHSAT co-chair Ann Azevedo (FAA Risk NRS) Mark Liptak(FAA) JHSAT co-chair Barry Rohm (Roll Royce) Roy Fox (Bell) Bruce Briknell (Navy) Fred Brisbois (Sikorsky) 2 to 3 operators Ed Stockhausen (Airmethods) Joe Syslo (Eurocopter) TBD (Robinson) Laura Iseler (IHST) Sandy Hart (NASA) Long Term participation not yet determined due to funding Bob Dodd (Dodd and Associates)

Federal Aviation Administration 11 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Process Overview and Timing Expectations

Federal Aviation Administration 12 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Basic CAST Process CAST (IHST) Charters Activity JSAT (JHSAT) Analyzes Data Proposes most effective interventions JSIT (JHSIT) Assesses feasibility of interventions works implementation Continued data analysis, measure intervention effectiveness

Federal Aviation Administration 13 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JHSAT Process Flowchart Charter Development Establish Team Select Data Set Review NTSB Docket Data Develop Event Sequence Identify Problems (what/why) Assign Std Problem Statements Score Problem Power & Applicability Identify Intervention Strategies Score Intervention Effectiveness Prioritize by Overall Effectiveness Technical Review Conflicts? Report Results No Yes IHST JHSIT OE=ƒ(P, A, C) = currently being worked by JHSAT

Federal Aviation Administration 14 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 US Dataset Selection JSAT Process Understanding Refining JHSAT Analysis Identify FCAA & Military Partners Indoctrinate in JHSAT Process Conduct JHSAT based analyses Mitigation Recs for US Mitigation Recs - Global Mitigation Recs FCAA & Mil JHSAT Macro Process Flow and Outreach Approach Tech Review Mar/Apr 06 Apr 06 May-Nov 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Jan 07 June-Dec 06 June 06 May 06 Tech Review Dec 06 = currently being worked by JHSAT

Federal Aviation Administration 15 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JSAT Process - adapting to rotorcraft data JSAT Process relies on reconstruction of event sequences Lack of detailed data in rotorcraft accidents JHSAT will be more dependent on subject matter experts to fill voids in data Develop customized list of standard problem statements Continuing to work sample accident reports to better understand process issues.

Federal Aviation Administration 16 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Secondary Technical Support JHSAT findings will be reviewed by subject matter experts. Analysis results will be subject to peer review. Anticipated areas: AirframePilots EnginesMaintenance TrainingRegulators Others Will develop and draw on these resources as intervention areas are developed from the data Need SME expertise to validate intervention recommendations

Federal Aviation Administration 17 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Dataset Selection

Federal Aviation Administration 18 IHST Briefing - May 8, ,294 Worldwide Civil Helicopters Source: Rotor Roster 2006

Federal Aviation Administration 19 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006

Federal Aviation Administration 20 IHST Briefing - May 8, year look back – Relative stability in helicopter accident causal factors

Federal Aviation Administration 21 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Worldwide Helicopter Accident Count Goal Present average 10-year ( ) accident count: 562 accidents/year 80% reduction goal means that the number of accidents per year starting in 2016 should be: 0.2 X 562 = accidents Challenge: 562 accidents today 112 in 2017

Federal Aviation Administration 22 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 JHSAT Multi-Year Data Analysis Approach NTSB Data + International Data Report Mar ‘07 Report 2008 Report 2009 Validate

Federal Aviation Administration 23 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Existing Safety Reports

Federal Aviation Administration 24 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Leveraging Existing Helicopter Safety Studies Can we offer any mitigation recommendations in the near term? SourceCountryTopicTitle NASAUSA35 year accident analysisU.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997 NASAUSA7 year accident analysisAnalysis of US Civil Rotorcraft Accidents from 1990 to 1996 and Implications for a Safety Program NASAUSAHelicopter IncidentsASRS Rotorcraft Incident Study - Draft Data Summary NASAUSAFatal Accident AnalysisThe Final Report of the Helicopter Accident Analysis Team AMPAUSAEMSA Safety Review and Risk Assessment in Air Medical Transport CRSUSAMilitary safetyReport for Congress - Military Aviation Safety OGPUKOil & gas operationsSafety Performance of Helicopter Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry Data TSBCandaAccident AnalysisLessons Learned from TSB Investigation of Helicopter Accidents ( ) Bell TextronUSAAccidentsHistory of Helicopter Safety

Federal Aviation Administration 25 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” Winston Churchill Measuring the results

Federal Aviation Administration 26 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Safety Metrics l Purpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired risk reduction. l Assumption: Measurement of accident rate alone is not an effective means of identifying program success, interventions must be measurable l Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in place l Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring l Issue annual reports showing key indicator trends l Time span, at least 10 years, also an opportunity to establish a permanent set of criteria to measure for monitoring the “system-wide” health of the helicopter sector

Federal Aviation Administration 27 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Conclusions IHST safety initiative is utilizing a proven, widely recognized data-driven process JHSAT team comprised of a cross-section of helicopter industry experts has been formed Dataset selected – NTSB JHSAT pushing to publish first set of helicopter safety intervention recommendations by 1Q07. Leveraging existing safety reports Outreach effort to engage international community Performance will be measured

Federal Aviation Administration 28 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Questions/Comments