Budget & Economic Forecast FEBRUARY 2014 MINNESOTA MANAGEMENT & BUDGET MMB.STATE.MN.US February 28, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Budget & Economic Forecast FEBRUARY 2014 MINNESOTA MANAGEMENT & BUDGET MMB.STATE.MN.US February 28, 2014

February Forecast Summary  $825 million budget balance grows to $1.233 billion for FY  Growth in income and sales tax collections contribute to revenue forecast  U.S. economic outlook improves  Long term budget outlook remains positive

Revenue Gain, Lower Spending Add to Forecast Balance ($ in millions) February Forecast $ Change Beginning Balance $1, Revenues 39, Spending 39,019(48) Reserves 1, Stadium Reserve 23 6 Forecast Balance $1,233 $408

U.S. Economic Outlook has Improved Source: IHS Global Insigh t U.S. Real GDP Annual % Change

Near-term Federal Policy Uncertainty is Reduced Source: Baker, Bloom, & Davis August 2011 Debt Ceiling Dispute September /11

Consumer Confidence is Improving Source: IHS Global Insight (GI); Reuters/University of Michigan September 2008 Financial Crisis August 2011 Debt Ceiling Dispute October 2013 Government Shutdown & Debt Ceiling Dispute

Total Minnesota Adjusted Gross Income (AGI)* Source: Minnesota Department of Revenue; Minnesota Management & Budget (MMB)

Revenues Up Slightly From Previous Estimates ($ in millions) FY $ Change Income $19,560 $188 Sales 10, Corporate 2, Statewide Property Tax 1,665 (4) Other Tax Revenue 3,513 (27) Taxes Subtotal $37,813 $362 Non-tax Revenues 1,432 5 Other Resources 330 (1) Total Revenues $39,575 $366

Uncertainties Remain  Harsh weather clouds economic signals –Jobs –Manufacturing –Construction  Non-wage income adds revenue volatility  Recent higher-than-expected tax payments

Small Decrease in Projected Spending ($ in millions) FY $ Change K-12 Education $16,625 $(29) Property Tax Aids & Credits 2,923(24) Health & Human Services 11, Debt Service 1,253 1 All Other 6,875 (12) Total Spending $ 39,019 $(48)

($ in millions) FY 2016FY 2017FY Revenues $21,155$22,128 $43,284 Spending 20,133 20,551 40,685 Difference $1,022 $1,577 $2,599 Forecast Change$167$234$401 Planning Estimates Improve Slightly * Spending not adjusted for general inflation (CPI) – adjusting for inflation would increase spending by $1.068 billion ($342 million in 2016 and $726 million in 2017)