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Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-Hall Chapter Chapter 4: Modeling Decision Processes Decision Support Systems in the 21 st Century, 2 nd Edition by George M. Marakas

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter : Defining the Problem and Its Structure A fully formed problem statement contains three key components: The current state of affairs The desired state of affairs A statement of the central objective(s) that distinguish the two

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Problem Definition Errors Failing to identify and define the problem fully may result in a great solution that does not solve the right problem A common error: premature focus on the set of solutions rather than the problem itself The decision maker may be left with a solution looking for a problem to solve

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Problem Scope The problem may be worth solving but the scope is beyond the available resources or time constraints In such cases, the scope must be reduced to a focus that allows a solution One method to limit the scope is to identify its breadth by asking questions about people involved, cost and magnitude

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Problem Structure Design of problem structure is similar to design of many other entities What is the final appearance? What are the elemental details? What are the relationships between those elements? Regardless of context, a problem structure can be described in terms of choices, uncertainties and objectives

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Problem Structure (cont.) Choices: there are always at least two alternatives (one is “do nothing”) Uncertainties: situations beyond the direct control of the decision maker; their individual probability of occurrence is only estimable within a certain range Objectives: methods of establishing the criteria used to measure the value of the outcome

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Structuring Tools Influence diagram: a simple method of graphing the components of a decision and linking them to show the relationships between them DecisionObjective Uncertainty

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Structuring Tools (cont.) Decision tree: another diagram that models choices and uncertainties and can be extended to include multiple, sequential decisions Decision Uncertainty

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-HallChapter Common Decision Structures Basic Risky Decision: decision maker takes a choice in the face of uncertainty. Success is a function of the choice and outcome. Certainty: a multiple-objective decision with little risk. Success is a function of the trade- off between objectives. Sequential: several risky decisions over time. Earlier outcomes may affect later choices.