EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Standard: SDAP 3.2 Use data to estimate the probability of future events (e.g., batting averages or number of accidents per mile.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Gl: Students will be expected to conduct simple experiments to determine probabilities G2 Students will be expected to determine simple theoretical probabilities.

Advertisements

Probability. …how likely something is… Probability is how likely something is to happen. You might also hear it called chance. Probability can be expressed.

How can you tell which is experimental and which is theoretical probability? You tossed a coin 10 times and recorded a head 3 times, a tail 7 times.

Probability By Laura Farrington 8GT. What is Probability? Probability is about the chance of something happening. When we talk about how probable something.

What is Probability? The study of probability helps us figure out the likelihood of something happening. In math we call this “something happening” or.

DETERMINE IF AN EVENT IS INDEPENDENT OR DEPENDENT.

REVIEW. WHAT’S THE PERCENT OF… Annabeth found the following hats in her closet: 1 blue Yankees hat1 blue Mariner’s hat 1 orange Giants hat1 red Red Sox.

What are the chances of that happening?. What is probability? The mathematical expression of the chances that a particular event or outcome will happen.

Learning Target: I can… Find the probability of simple events.

Bellwork What fraction of the spinner is blue? Write in simplest form.

Finding Theoretical Probability Using an Area Model

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING.

Bell Work Suppose 10 buttons are placed in a bag (5 gray, 3 white, 2 black). Then one is drawn without looking. Refer to the ten buttons to find the probability.

Probability: Simple and Compound Independent and Dependent Experimental and Theoretical.

CONFIDENTIAL 1 Algebra1 Theoretical Probability. CONFIDENTIAL 2 Warm Up 1) choosing a heart. 2) choosing a heart or a diamond. An experiment consists.

1 Slide Slide Bases of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics.

Notes on PROBABILITY What is Probability? Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can be either.

PLEASE PASS OUT YOUR ADVISORY FOLDERS! PROBABILITY What do you think the chances are…?

List one thing that has a probability of 0?. agenda 1) notes on probability 2) lesson 1 example 1, 2 Exercise 5-8 Problem set 1-3 3)start lesson 3.

Definitions Probability is the mathematics of chance. It tells us the relative frequency with which we can expect an event to occur The greater the probability.

Probability THEORETICAL Theoretical probability can be found without doing and experiment. EXPERIMENTAL Experimental probability is found by repeating.

1. What’s the probability that the spinner will land on blue?

Bell Work/Cronnelly. A= 143 ft 2 ; P= 48 ft A= 2.3 m; P= 8.3 m A= ft 2 ; P= 76 ft 2/12; 1/6 1/12 8/12; 2/3 6/12; 1/2 0/12 4/12; 1/3 5/12 6/12; 1/2.

Warm up Decide if the following represent permutations or combinations. Then calculate the desired results. 1. How many different four digit numbers can.

Module 12: Experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Lesson 7.8 Simple Probability Essential Question: How do you find the probability of an event?

3.4 Elements of Probability. Probability helps us to figure out the liklihood of something happening. The “something happening” is called and event. The.

Probability VOCAB!. What is probability? The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood that the event will occur. When all outcomes are equally.

PROBABILLITY Transition Math What is Probability? Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can.

Topic 9.4 Independent and Dependent Objectives: Find the probability of independent and dependent events.

How likely is something to happen..  When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: heads (H) or tails (T) We say the probability of a coin.

What do you know about probability? Probability is a number from __ to __ that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can have two approaches.

PROBABILITY! Let’s learn about probability and chance!

PROBABILLITY Transition Math.

Probability and Odds PSSA Unit.

PROBABILITY Lesson 1.

Lesson 10.3 – Experimental and Theoretical Probability

2. There are 3 red, 7 blue and 6 green marbles in a bag.

Finding Theoretical Probability Using an Area Model

Experimental Probability Vs. Theoretical Probability

Probability: Experimental Probability Vs. Theoretical Probability

Lesson 13.1 Find Probabilities and Odds

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING

= 4.802−1.3= 2.09(2.8)= Bell Work 8.84÷3.4= − 3 4 = Cronnelly.

Probability Union Intersection Complement

2+6.1= 6.6−1.991= 0.7(5.416)= 8.92÷1.6= = Bell Work Cronnelly.

Skill Review Unique has a bag of marbles. There are 4 colors of marbles: red, blue, yellow, and green. The table shows the frequencies of marbles after.

Learning Intention Long-Run Relative Frequency

Directions for using an Area Model:

Experimental Probability Vs. Theoretical Probability

Probability “What will Be?”.

Bell Work Calculators okay to use but show your work!

Bell Work Cronnelly.

HW: p.426(16-17,22,24) Must show work! Materials

Experimental Probability Versus Theoretical Probability

video Warm-Up Lesson 14 Exit card

Finding Theoretical Probability Using an Area Model

Probability of Simple Events

Bellwork: 5/13/16 Find the theoretical probability of each outcome

Presentation transcript:

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Standard: SDAP 3.2 Use data to estimate the probability of future events (e.g., batting averages or number of accidents per mile driven). Student Objective: - Students will use data from experimental probability to estimate the probability of future events by solving problems independently on an exit slip and demonstrating proficiency with 80% accuracy.

What is Probability? Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can be either theoretical or experimental.

Probability EXPERIMENTAL Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes. What is an experiment? Why would you need to repeat an experiment? What do experiments have to do with probability?

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY I have a quarter My quarter has a heads side and a tails side  Since my quarter has only 2 sides, there are only 2 possible outcomes when I flip it. It will either land on heads, or tails HEADS TAILS Example 1

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY When I flip my coin, the probability that my coin will land on heads is 1 in 2 What is the probability that my coin will land on tails?? HEADS TAILS Example (continue)

Theoretical Probability Right!!! There is a 1 in 2 probability that my coin will land on tails!!! HEADS TAILS A probability of 1 in 2 can be written in three ways: As a fraction: ½ As a decimal:.50 As a percent: 50%

Theoretical probability When I spin this spinner, I have a 1 in 4 chance of landing on the section with the red A in it. A A A A Example 2

A 1 in 4 chance can be written 3 ways: As a fraction: ¼ As a decimal:.25 As a percent: 25% A A A A Theoretical Probability

I am going to take 1 marble from the bag. What is the probability that I will pick out a red marble? Theoretical Probability I have three marbles in a bag. 1 marble is red 1 marble is blue 1 marble is green Example 3

Theoretical Probability Since there are three marbles and only one is red, I have a 1 in 3 chance of picking out a red marble. I can write this in three ways: As a fraction: 1/3 As a decimal:.33 As a percent: 33%

Probability THEORETICAL Theoretical probability can be found without doing and experiment. EXPERIMENTAL Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes.

Experimental Probability Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes.

Experimental Probability Remember the bag of marbles? The bag has only 1 red, 1 green, and 1 blue marble in it. There are a total of 3 marbles in the bag. Theoretical Probability says there is a 1 in 3 chance of selecting a red, a green or a blue marble.

Experimental Probability Draw 1 marble from the bag. It is a red marble. Record the outcome on the tally sheet

Experimental Probability Put the red marble back in the bag and draw again. This time your drew a green marble. Record this outcome on the tally sheet.

Experimental Probability Place the green marble back in the bag. Continue drawing marbles and recording outcomes until you have drawn 6 times. (remember to place each marble back in the bag before drawing again.)

Experimental Probability After 6 draws your chart will look similar to this. Look at the red column. Of our 6 draws, we selected a red marble 2 times.

Experimental Probability The experimental probability of drawing a red marble was 2 in 6. This can be expressed as a fraction: 2/6 or 1/3 a decimal :.33 or a percentage: 33%

Experimental Probability Notice the Experimental Probability of drawing a red, blue or green marble.

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability Look at the chart at the right. Is the experimental probability always the same as the theoretical probability?

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability In this experiment, the experimental and theoretical probabilities of selecting a red marble are equal.

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability The experimental probability of selecting a blue marble is less than the theoretical probability. The experimental probability of selecting a green marble is greater than the theoretical probability.

Probability Review Theoretical (can be found without doing an experiment) Experimental (can be found by repeating an experiment and recording outcomes.) There are 2 types of probability: Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen.

Probability Review Probability can be expressed as a fraction, a decimal or a percentage.