Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 Atlantic storms Tim Marchok NOAA / GFDL Collaborators: Rob Rogers (NOAA / AOML / HRD)

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Presentation transcript:

Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 Atlantic storms Tim Marchok NOAA / GFDL Collaborators: Rob Rogers (NOAA / AOML / HRD) Bob Tuleya (NCEP/EMC & Old Dominion Univ.) Mark Powell (NOAA / AOML / HRD) HFIP Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop NHC, Miami, FL 04 May 2009

Motivation Inland flooding from TC rainfall accounts for a significant percentage of deaths from U.S. landfalling TCs. Storm size / structure has a major impact on the amount of damage at landfall. …both aspects have only recently begun to receive attention in terms of model evaluation

Outline Rainfall validation & techniques Application of TC QPF validation techniques to 2008 U.S. landfalling storms Development of model wind structure validation techniques Application of wind structure validation techniques to 2008 Atlantic TCs

Rainfall patterns Rainfall mean & volume Extreme amounts Rainfall validation: What to focus on?

The TC track: An anchor for QPF validation

GFDL NAM GFS R-CLIPER HWRF Stage IV Example: Hurricane Gustav 72-h total rainfall

2008 Landfalling Storms

Rainfall Patterns Equitable Threat Scores Pattern Correlations:GFS (r = 0.78) HWRF (r = 0.60) GFDL (r = 0.53) NAM (r = 0.52) R-CLIPER (r = 0.51) (2008)

Mean Rainfall

Rainfall volume Comparison of rain volume bias by model

2008 Landfalling Storms 50% level Difference between obs rain value and fcst rain value at 50% level determines index

Track-relative rain flux analyses

Rain volume: Rain flux in select bands 0–100 km km GFDL, HWRF GFS, NAM

Skill Indices: Pattern Matching GFS performs the best in both samples All models have skill relative to R-CLIPER

Skill Indices: Mean / Volume

Skill Indices: Extreme Amounts GFDL overforecasts the large amounts, HWRF underforecasts them, resulting in comparable indices GFS performs best despite lowest resolution

Rainfall Summary Validation techniques address unique TC rainfall attributes:  Pattern matching  Rainfall volume  Extreme amounts TC QPF skill indices for operational forecast evaluation GFS most skillful in 2008 (similar to 2005)

Outline Rainfall validation & techniques Application of TC QPF validation techniques to 2008 U.S. landfalling storms Development of model wind structure validation techniques Application of wind structure validation techniques to 2008 Atlantic TCs

The importance of near-surface wind structure Area_TS Katrina Area_TS Charley = Factor of 9

Focus is on continuous / homogeneous methods Distribution of Winds  Fractional areal coverage  PDFs of the winds Radial Structure  Earth-relative profiles  Storm motion-relative profiles  Radius of max winds Storm Destructive Potential  IKE, SDP, WDP (Powell and Reinhold 2007) Others?

Cases included in study…

Distribution: Fractional Areal Coverage (34-kt winds) Storm- sample average at tau=00h NW SWSE NE

Distribution: Fractional Areal Coverage (34-kt winds) Storm- sample average at tau=48h NW SWSE NE

Distribution: Fractional Areal Coverage (64-kt winds) Storm- sample average at tau=00h NW SWSE NE

Distribution: Fractional Areal Coverage (64-kt winds) Storm- sample average at tau=48h NW SWSE NE

Radial profiles of the wind (all cases) NW SWSE NE Tau= 00h

Radial profiles of the wind (all cases) NW SWSE NE Tau= 48h

Radial profiles of the wind (Hurricanes only) NW SWSE NE Tau= 00h

Radial profiles of the wind (Hurricanes only) NW SWSE NE Tau= 48h

Radius of Maximum Winds

Forecasts of Integrated Kinetic Energy GFDL Ike Intensity ForecastsHWRF Ike Intensity Forecasts Max Wind (kts) IKE (TJ) GFDL Ike IKE (V>18 m/s) Forecasts HWRF Ike IKE (V>18 m/s) Forecasts

Forecasts of Integrated Kinetic Energy

Wind Structure Summary Methods complementary to wind radii validation Focus on various aspects of wind field  Distribution  Radial structure  IKE / Storm destructive potential  Others…? Some biases already evident