Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009 Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009 Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities Precipitation estimates and forecasts merged into continuous dataset Precipitation dataset ingested into hydrologic model. Forecasters adjust model parameters in real time Provide River forecast to WFO and issue to public Staff of 15 to prepare forecasts

Observed Precipitation Observed Precipitation Future Precipitation Future Precipitation Soil Model Rainfall to Runoff Soil Model Rainfall to Runoff Local Basin Rating Curve Flow to Stage Rating Curve Flow to Stage Unit Hydrograph Runoff to Flow Unit Hydrograph Runoff to Flow Upstream Flow Upstream River Gage Basin Local Flow Total Flow (cfs) Total Flow (cfs) Forecaster Modification Forecaster Modification Forecast To Public Forecast To Public Forecast River Gage River Forecasts: How are they created?

Forecast Considerations  Ground State (How dry is it?)  Past Model Performances  Rainfall (Gage-based or Radar-based?)  Rainfall Variability SpaceSpace TimeTime

Current Forecast Locations Products prepared for each official forecast location Products prepared for each official forecast location –5-day forecast –Probabilistic forecasts of weekly chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow –Probabilistic forecasts of chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow for the next 90 days

5-Day Forecast Forecasts updated daily based on 7AM observations Forecasts updated daily based on 7AM observations Updates in the evening and when needed during significant events Updates in the evening and when needed during significant events Includes 12 hours of forecasted rainfall Includes 12 hours of forecasted rainfall

Precip Products Daily Images Daily and multi-day precip products updated daily Daily and multi-day precip products updated daily National image with capability to zoom to state or region National image with capability to zoom to state or region Data available for download in shape and netcdf files Data available for download in shape and netcdf files

Precip Products Hourly Images Hourly and multi-hour precip products updated each hour Hourly and multi-hour precip products updated each hour Regional image with capability to zoom to state or region Regional image with capability to zoom to state or region Data available for download in shape and netcdf files Data available for download in shape and netcdf files

Precip Products Future Rainfall Forecast of rainfall for next 72 hours in 6-hour increments Forecast of rainfall for next 72 hours in 6-hour increments Updated every 6 hours at 6AM, 12PM, 6PM, and 6AM Updated every 6 hours at 6AM, 12PM, 6PM, and 6AM

RFC Products FOP Significant Flooding out to 5 days Significant Flooding out to 5 days Only includes moderate or greater flooding Only includes moderate or greater flooding