A Revolution in Earth Science? “It is time for a change”; “restore science to its rightful place” Obama. Global Warming is coming; be it a natural cycle augmented by CO2 warming (10% likely) or a totally anthropomorphic forcing (90% likely) And even though Mr. Obama and his staff members have promised to use science to drive policy, scientists say they need to stay vigilant against efforts to allow politics to drive science.. Consider the alternative

What are the “Big Questions” as defined by NASA (lidar related, 2008) Earth Questions: How is the global earth system changing? (climate modeling) Earth Questions: How is the global earth system changing? What are the primary forcings of the Earth system? (PBL dynamics; weather/climate modeling) What are the primary forcings of the Earth system? How does the earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes? (climate models) How does the earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes? What are the consequences of change in the earth system for human civilization? What are the consequences of change in the earth system for human civilization? How will the Earth system change in the future? (climate modeling)

Present NASA satellites CALIPSO 2006 (“lidar”, clouds & aerosols) CloudSat (2006); AURA (EOS, 2004); AIRS (2002); MODIS (EOS, 2002); JASON-1 (2001); ASTER (1999); TRMM (1997) OSTM Jason-2 Ocean Science Topography Poseidon-3 Altimeter (CNES); GPS &Laser retroreflector assembly (NASA) --- positioning; radiometer H2O Quikscat (1999). Surface winds {notably not listed amongst present earth satellites?} Present satellite --- dynamics

Future satellite plans NASA 2008 OCO; Carbon distribution (‘09) Glory; properties of aerosols and black carbon (soot) in the Earth's atmosphere (‘09) ---- Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor, Total Irradiance Monitor Aquarius; global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). long- term effects of solar irradiance (2010) GPM: Precipitation. -- improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards (2011) That’s all………..

Present & future; conclusions Given: the US earth science program has been moribund the past decade. Given: in the case of dynamics, it has been dead (Quikscat was launched in 1999) The Baker-Brown dichotomy over lidar- scatterometer priorities is moot All bets are off 1/26/2009? No speculations from NASA employees. (the Proenza effect?)

Advice for the new President “Expert” opinions: Steven Weinberg (Nobel prize): “Radically cut back the manned spaceflight program and in particular cancel the Moon-Mars project.....” UCS: met with members of the presidential transition team to share recommendations for restoring scientific integrity to federal policy making as well as advice on climate, energy, and environmental policies that should be given the highest priority in the new administration. Alan Stern (NASA Administrator): “Act as an evangelist for a more scientifically literate public who are better able to evaluate issues such as global change, tech solutions to energy policy, evolution and gene therapies.” RA Brown (novel, The Tree….2005): “The old USA failed, because democracy failed under a semi-illiterate electorate, and capitalism failed under a naïve Quixotic idea that people would act in the best interests of the public & the country. Just as did Communism fail. And just as the USSR did, the USA broke into five new states (circa 2022).”

Inside info: NASA planned satellites

A Possible Future years $2 billion promised by Obama to NASA Eliminate the bottleneck between NASA and NOAA (research/operational red herring) new NASA head announces redirection of priorities; $1.5 billion to earth sciences. New sensors for Let’s speculate: MOS

A Possible Future years On Jan 26, 2009: $1.5 billion voted by senate to NASA Eliminate the bottleneck between NASA and NOAA (research/operational red herring) Senate stimulus plan directs $0.6 billion to earth sciences. New sensors for Let’s speculate: MOS 

The Newest satellites: New scatterometers; One K-band and one C-band dedicated to hurricane analyses. A scatterometer tamden with a SAR (100-meter resolution) for global surface winds.

The Newest satellites: There will be four Doppler lidars. Three techniques, no need for hybrids. Two will fly in consort to provide different looks for directions. An extensive comparison program between the sensors and with other wind sensors.

The Newest satellites: Three Wind SARs colocated with scatterometers and lidars. Provides 100-meter resolution in storms and near land.

The Newest satellites: A scatterometer- lidar joint mission (EOS original & ‘07 action item) to provide continuous winds from surface to stratosphere. Or.... A Lidar – scatterometer joint mission etc

The Newest satellites: There will be a flumigated transcalidated cumquat sensor for determining winds at 100-m vertical resolution near the tropopause. (new technology)

That’s $1 billion, add: $400 million for analysis $50 million for public communication $40 million for OSSEs $10 million for chemistry satellites If you don’t believe this, I have a novel on “The Alternate” The Tree or the Panzaic Plea, Amazon.com, that you would enjoy.