Super Tuesday: A Look Ahead From Hotline Editor Kyle Trygstad and National Journal Political Editor Josh Kraushaar February 22, 2016 Producer: Katharine.

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Presentation transcript:

Super Tuesday: A Look Ahead From Hotline Editor Kyle Trygstad and National Journal Political Editor Josh Kraushaar February 22, 2016 Producer: Katharine Conlon Director: Afzal Bari

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCEMENT GUIDEPRESENTATION CENTER 7 Republicans and Democrats are Still in the Presidential Race Democrat and Republican Candidates for the 2016 Presidential Election Notes Scott Walker and Rick Perry both dropped out of the Republican race in September Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee dropped out of the Democratic race in October; Webb may run as an independent Vice President Joe Biden decided not to run on October 21 st Lawrence Lessig dropped out of the Democratic race on November 2 nd Bobby Jindal dropped out of the Republican race on November 17 th Lindsey Graham dropped out of the Republican race on December 21 st George Pataki dropped out of the Republican race on December 29 th Martin O’Malley and Mike Huckabee dropped out after the Iowa Caucus on February 1 st Rand Paul and Rick Santorum dropped out of the Republican race on February 3 rd Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie dropped out of the race on February 10 th Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race on February 14 th Jeb Bush dropped out of the race on February 20, following the South Carolina GOP primary Clinton RubioTrump Sanders CruzCarson Kasich Sources: Wilson Andrews, Alicia Parlapiano, and Karen Yourish, “Who is Running for President (and Who’s Not)?” New York Times, February 21, 2016 February 22, 2016 | Katharine Conlon, Christine Yan and Alexander Perry 1

February 22, 2016 | Katharine Conlon Source: The New York Times, “New Hampshire Exit Polls,” February 9, 2016; The New York Times, “Iowa Entrance Polls,” February 2, IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS BY GENDERPRESENTATION CENTER The Female Factor: Bernie Won More Women Voters in New Hampshire ■ Men ■ Women Percentage of Voters Voting for Candidate, by Gender Iowa New Hampshire 2

February 22, 2016 | Katharine Conlno Source: The New York Times, “New Hampshire Exit Polls,” February 9, 2016; The New York Times, “Iowa Entrance Polls,” February 2, IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS BY EDUCATIONPRESENTATION CENTER Education Divide: College vs. Non-College Educated Voters ■ College Degree ■ No College Degree Percentage of Voters Voting for Candidate, by Education Level Iowa Democratic Entrance Polls New Hampshire Democratic Exit Polls ■ College Degree ■ No College Degree Iowa GOP Entrance Polls New Hampshire GOP Exit Polls 3

Sources: National Journal Research, 2016; Washington Post, “2016 Primary Debate Schedules,” Oct 28, 2015; FrontloadingHQ, “The 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar,” February 22, 2016 | Katharine Conlon KEY ELECTION DATESPRESENTATION CENTER Looking Ahead at Key Election Dates February March April May June Feb. 1: IA Caucus Feb. 9: NH Primary Feb. 20: NV Dem. Caucus, SC GOP Primary, WA GOP Caucus Feb. 23: NV GOP Caucus Feb. 27: SC Dem. Primary Mar. I: Caucuses (AK GOP, CO Dem., CO GOP, MN, ND GOP, WY GOP) Primaries (AL, AR, GA, MA, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA) Mar. 5: LA Primary, GOP Caucuses (KY, ME, KS), Dem. Caucuses (KS, NE) Mar. 8: Primaries (MI, MS, ID Rep.), HI GOP Caucus Mar. 15: Primaries (IL, MO, FL, NC, OH), MP GOP caucus Mar. 22: AZ Primary, Caucuses (ID Dem., UT Dem., UT Rep.) Mar. 26: Dem. Caucuses (AK, HI, WA) Apr. 5: WI Primary Apr. 9: WY Dem. Caucus Apr. 19: NY Primary Apr. 26: Primaries (CT, DE, PA, MD, RI) May 3: IN Primary May 10: Primaries (NE GOP, WV) May 17: Primaries (KY Dem., OR) May 24: WA GOP Primary June 7: Primaries (CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD), ND Dem. Caucus June 14: DC Dem. Primary June 28: UT Primary Democratic and Republican Primary/Caucus Dates 4

Barbara Boxer (D- CA)Dan Coats (R-IN)Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Harry Reid (D-NV)David Vitter (R-LA)Marco Rubio (R-FL) Six Senators Are Not Seeking Reelection in 2016 January 15, 2016 | Katharine Conlon Source: National Journal Research, 2015; Roll Call, “Casualty List: 114 th Congress ( ),” January 14, CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENT TRACKERPRESENTATION CENTER Senators Retiring and Not Seeking Reelection in 2016 OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS AK HI DE RI VT NH MA CT NJ MD DC 5

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