The South American Monsoon System Summary September 2012-May 2013 Prepared June 2013 by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP In collaboration with Instituto.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Advertisements

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 November 2012.

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 6, 2006.

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information:

The South American Monsoon System Summary July 2007-June 2008 Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 2008 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 22,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 December 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 8 Mar 2011 For Real-time information:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 April 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 17, 2005.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 04 May 2009 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 January 2010 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System Summary July 2011-June 2012

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 07 July 2008 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 April 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 May 2015.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 September.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 September.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2007.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2009 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information,

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 December 2008 For more information, visit:

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 3, 2006.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 16, 2010.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 May 2011.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 December 2010 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 02 April.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 October.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 May 2009 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 12, 2010.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2009 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 April 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 November 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 October 2009 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 May 2012.

The South American Monsoon System Summary September 2014-May 2015 Prepared by Vernon E. Kousky Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 2015 For more information,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 26, 2005.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 09 November 2009 For more information, visit:

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 31, 2006.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 19, 2005.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 February 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 7,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 December2016 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Presentation transcript:

The South American Monsoon System Summary September 2012-May 2013 Prepared June 2013 by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP In collaboration with Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) For more information, visit:

Summary The rainy season onset phase (SON) featured rainfall deficits of mm or more over parts of the Amazon basin, central and southern Brazil. Above- average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, portions of Peru, Paraguay and eastern Argentina. ENSO-neutral conditions were present in the tropical Pacific. During the mature phase of the monsoon (DJF) rainfall was below average over central, Northeast and most of Southeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina, with rainfall deficits greater than 300 mm in many areas. Above- average rainfall was observed over portions of Colombia, northwestern Brazil, Peru, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific. During the decay phase of the rainy season (MAM), rainfall was below average over western, northeastern and southern Brazil, Venezuela, and northern Argentina, with deficits greater than 300 mm observed over portions of those regions. Above-average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, Paraguay and portions of the central Amazon basin in Brazil. SST’s were near average throughout most of the equatorial Pacific. In general, rainfall deficits were observed over most of South America during September 2012-May 2013, with the core monsoon region (Brazilian Plateau) experiencing the largest deficit in the historical record ( ).

Outline Onset phase Mature phase Decay phase Long-Term Departures from Average Summary

Selected Regions in South America SAMS core region – Brazilian Plateau (BP) Northern Northeast Brazil (NNE) Southern Northeast Brazil (SNE)

Precipitation Climatology ONSET DATES

Precipitation Departures: Onset Phase (Sep-Nov 2012) During September-November 2012 rainfall was below average over most of western, central-western and southern Brazil, with rainfall deficits exceeding 300 mm in parts of the Amazon basin. Above-average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, portions of Peru, Paraguay and eastern Argentina.

SON Historical Time Series for BP Region mean

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies (Sep-Nov 2012) During September–November 2012, equatorial SSTs were 0.5-1°C above average over the central Pacific Ocean (150°E-150°W). In the tropical Atlantic, SSTs were above average from northern South America to the West coast of North Africa. Negative SST anomalies were observed in the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean.

Precipitation Departures: Mature Phase (Dec 2012-Feb 2013) During December 2012-February 2013 rainfall was below average over central, Northeast and most of Southeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina, with rainfall deficits greater than 300 mm in many areas. Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Colombia, northwestern Brazil, Peru, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil.

DJF Historical Time Series for BP Region mean

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies (Dec12-Feb13) During December 2012–February 2013, negative SST anomalies developed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and positive SST anomalies remained in the western equatorial Pacific. Over the Atlantic equatorial, SSTs were slightly above average from northern South America to the African coast, and along the African coast south of the equator. Small negative anomalies remained in the subtropical South Atlantic.

Precipitation Climatology END DATES

Precipitation Departures: Decay Phase (Mar-May 2013) During March-May 2013 rainfall was below average over portions of western, northeastern and southern Brazil, Venezuela, and northern Argentina, with deficits greater than 300 mm observed over portions of those regions. Above-average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, Paraguay and portions of the central Amazon basin in Brazil.

MAM Historical Time Series for BP Region mean

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies (Mar-May 2013) During March-May 2013, equatorial SSTs were near average in the Pacific Ocean, except in the far western portions on the basin and along the immediate West Coast of South America. In the tropical Atlantic, SSTs were above average north of the equator and near or slightly above average south of the equator.

Precipitation Departures: September May 2013 During September May 2013 rainfall was below average throughout most of Brazil, Venezuela, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina, and above average over central Colombia, eastern Ecuador and northern Peru.

SONDJFMAM Historical Time Series for BP Region mean

Northeast Brazil Drought Interior Northeast Brazil suffered its second consecutive year of severe drought. During February-April 2012 rainfall was less than 50% of the average in many areas. Similar conditions occurred in northern NE Brazil (NNE) during February-April 2013, while in southern NE Brazil (SNE) drought conditions continued although not as severe as during the previous year (see next slide).

February-April Historical Time Series mean In NNE and SNE FMA 2012 and FMA 2013 rank amongst the driest FMA periods during

Northern Northeast Brazil (NNE) Stations Rainfall deficits are indicated in red. Data Source: INMET Courtesy of Mozar Salvador & Fabricio Silva

Rainfall deficits are indicated in red. Data Source: INMET Courtesy of Mozar Salvador & Fabricio Silva Southern Northeast Brazil (SNE) Stations

FMA Regional Atmospheric and Oceanic Features The patterns of anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Northeast Brazil and northern South America are similar for both years (see next slide, top panels). SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (next slide, middle panels) are quite different in the two years (positive in 2012 and near zero in 2013), SST anomalies in the subtropical and equatorial Atlantic were negative in 2012 and positive in The divergent circulation (next slide, bottom panels) shows anomalous mid-level (~500 hPa) rising motion (upper-level divergence and low-level convergence) over the western Amazon basin and sinking motion (upper-level convergence and low-level divergence) over NE Brazil in both years.

. Anomalous OLR, SST and Divergent Circulation

Summary The rainy season onset phase (SON) featured rainfall deficits of mm or more over parts of the Amazon basin, central and southern Brazil. Above- average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, portions of Peru, Paraguay and eastern Argentina. ENSO-neutral conditions were present in the tropical Pacific. During the mature phase of the monsoon (DJF) rainfall was below average over central, Northeast and most of Southeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina, with rainfall deficits greater than 300 mm in many areas. Above- average rainfall was observed over portions of Colombia, northwestern Brazil, Peru, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific. During the decay phase of the rainy season (MAM), rainfall was below average over western, northeastern and southern Brazil, Venezuela, and northern Argentina, with deficits greater than 300 mm observed over portions of those regions. Above-average rainfall was observed over central Colombia, Paraguay and portions of the central Amazon basin in Brazil. SST’s were near average throughout most of the equatorial Pacific. In general, rainfall deficits were observed over most of South America during September 2012-May 2013, with the core monsoon region (Brazilian Plateau) experiencing the largest deficit in the historical record ( ).