ARCSS eTown Meeting Surface Dynamics Science Priorities Friday, 6 January 2006

Horizon Wimba Interface Note: eTown Meeting presentation, audio, and public chat will be archived

eTown Meeting Participants Andi Lloyd, Surface Dynamics Co-oP Leader Community Participants * Indicates involvement with the Surface Dynamics Co-oP Matt Berman Syndonia Bret-Harte* Ronald Daanen Wendy Eisner Howard Epstein Eugenie Euskirchen Gary Kofinas Richard Lammers ARCSS Committee Members Craig Nicolson NSF Neil Swanberg, ARCSS Program Director Janet Intrieri, ARCSS Associate Program Director ARCSS Science Management Office staff (ARCUS) Steven Solomon Michael Steele Heidi Steltzer* Paddy Sullivan Skip Walker* Jeff Welker* Dan White* John Lloyd William Manley Martin Miles Maribeth Murray* Ignatius Rigor Josh Schimel* Gaius Shaver* Ron Sletten Don Perovich John Weatherly

Background: Arctic Surface Change Key Science Questions Key Research Questions –Land Surface Processes and Variables –Ocean Surface Processes and Variables –Linking Processes and Variables Discussion Questions Surface Dynamics eTown Meeting Outline

Reduction in extent of summer sea ice The Arctic surface is undergoing rapid change. Figure from NSIDC.org, 9/28/2005

The Arctic surface is undergoing rapid change. Reduction in extent of summer sea ice Reduction in area/mass of land ice Warming/thawing of permafrost From Dyurgerov 2002

Reduction in extent of summer sea ice Reduction in area/mass of land ice Warming/thawing of permafrost Expansion of tall woody vegetation The Arctic surface is undergoing rapid change. Photo from Sturm et al 2001

Reduction in extent of summer sea ice Reduction in area/mass of land ice Warming/thawing of permafrost Expansion of tall woody vegetation Expansion of industrial development The Arctic surface is undergoing rapid change. Areas of the Arctic within the impact zone of human infrastructure (roads, settlements, etc) (Both figures from GLOBIO, 2001)

Surface Dynamics Co-oP Key Science Questions: What are the rates and trajectories of earth surface change, and how do feedbacks between the ocean and land surface affect those rates/trajectories? What are the relative roles of, and interactions between, climate and human activities in driving collective earth surface change on land and in the ocean? How might the impacts of simultaneous land and ocean surface change interact with other forces of global change to affect both human populations and resource development in the Arctic?

Surface Dynamics Co-oP Key Science Questions: Predicting future trajectories Drivers of surface change Human impacts

Why look at collective earth surface change? Changes in land/ocean surface affect humans in similar ways: –transportation –access to food resources Impacts of change in one domain may depend on change in the other –Consequences of improved ocean transport for development within the Arctic contingent upon changes in land surface stability Strong feedbacks –land surface change --> increased runoff -->increased stratification of Arctic Ocean –reduction of sea ice-->enhanced warming -->increased rates of land surface change

Land surface processes Ocean surface processes Linking processes Arctic surface changes can be grouped into 3 categories of processes:

Land surface processes: Key research questions What is the rate at which woody vegetation is expanding in the Arctic, and what factors control the rate of expansion? Where are the “hot spots” where rates of change are greatest? What is the relative importance of external climate forcing and cumulative development impacts as drivers of land surface change in the Arctic? How is the relative importance of those drivers expected to change in the future? What are the most important feedbacks on the Arctic climate system associated with land surface change? What is the likely trajectory of those feedbacks over the next century? Which feedbacks are most important now? Which feedbacks are likely to be most important under scenarios of future Arctic climate? How does land surface change affect human activity (including both subsistence use and industrial-scale development)?

Key land surface variables

Ocean surface processes: Key research questions What is the most likely trajectory of future melting in summer and winter? What are the winter and summer patterns of sea ice melt? What are the spatial dynamics of sea ice formation and destruction, and how might those change in a warming climate? What are the most important feedbacks on the Arctic climate system associated with changes in sea ice dynamics? What is the likely trajectory of those feedbacks over the next century? Which feedbacks are most important now? Which feedbacks are likely to be most important under scenarios of future Arctic climate? What are the implications of sea surface change for human activity (including subsistence resource use, commercial fisheries, and transportation)?

Key land and ocean surface variables

Linking processes: Key research questions Are there important direct feedbacks (e.g., runoff, coastal erosion) between land-surface change and ocean-surface change? What is the likely trajectory of those feedbacks over the next century? What are the non-additive interactions between ocean and land surface change with respect to industrial development? For example, to what extent is accelerated industrial development in the Arctic likely to be contingent upon simultaneous transformation of land and ocean surface? What are the non-additive interactions between ocean and land surface change with respect to subsistence resource use? What are the implications of simultaneous disruption of land and ocean food webs?

Key land surface, ocean surface, and linking variables

Questions for discussion What is most essential for us to know about land and ocean surface change in the next decade? –What essential variables or processes have we left out? –What variables or processes that are included are non- essential and can be left behind?

Questions for discussion How can we refine our treatment of the human dimension? –How do we incorporate policy & institutions as drivers? What variables can we include that capture how policy decisions may alter the trajectory of land/ocean surface change? –How do we insure that the human dimension is an integral component of our Prospectus?

Summary

Thank you! Powerpoint presentation and Horizon Wimba Archive will be available through the ARCSS Meetings page: