1 This presentation has been prepared by Jørn Kristian Undelstvedt, Gisle Berge and Håkon Skullerud Pilot study on import and export of waste Overview to Statistics Norway’s work on the topic Approaches to estimation of waste amounts below monetary thresholds

2 Approach to import and export – an overview Main sources for information: –Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS) – data from The Norwegian Customs and Excise Authorities. HS8 nomenclature, not CN! –Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR) – data from the Norwegian Pollution Control Authority –Expert consultations (Customs and Excise, Advisory Board for waste statistics, Waste Industry, Norwegian Pollution Control Authority) Calculations: –We will build on the documents:  Results of pilot studies: WASTE/WG/52/5.2.2 (2005)  The pilot studies evaluation report: WASTE/WG/61/5.2 (2005) –A set of assumptions:  Some assumptions have been evaluated – looks fairly promising –No preliminary results yet

3 Harmonised System (HS8) Commodity list for external trade statistics - Harmonised System (HS8), follows the nomenclature to Norwegian Customs Tariff Fairly convertible to CN, although more mixed codes in HS8 (e.g. HS8 has more ”other-categories” whereas CN has more specific waste codes) Different monetary thresholds for import and export

4 Assumptions - general 1. A sufficient part of the waste imported or exported exceeds the monetary threshold. 2. Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS) contains - only pure non-hazardous waste codes (= green wastes) for recovery and - pure hazardous waste codes for recovery (waste for disposal is anticipated to be excluded) Evaluation: Crucial point! –Necessary to estimate waste below thresholds –Work so far shows that this assumption is valid, apart from a few exceptions. Evaluation: Most likely only few codes containing both hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Further study needed. –FTS is used as source for pure non-hazardous waste codes –WSR-data are used as source for pure hazardous waste codes –If mixed codes occur, WSR-data will be used to correct for double counting

5 Assumptions – mixed codes 3. For mixed HS8 codes (both waste and products): In general, products have significantly higher prices than wastes 4. For mixed HS8-codes: Enterprises do either import or export products or wastes from such HS8 codes – not both Evaluation: Fairly promising, although more study needed. –If assumptions 1 and 3 valid, easy to differentiate waste and product –Checking by scatter charts and by consulting experts Evaluation: Not performed yet. Not relevant if assumption 3 is valid. –If valid, easy to obtain information from enterprises –If not valid, difficult to obtain information from enterprises  concentrate on few enterprises  more uncertain estimations  we hold for certain that a registered shipment does not contain both product and waste

6 Assumptions – threshold variation 5. The distribution of waste amounts according to value per shipment, is the same for both import and export. 6. The distribution of waste amounts according to value per shipment, is independent of the thresholds. Evaluation: If valid - export can be estimated based on import data between the respective thresholds. –Generally not valid: The distribution of waste amounts for a specific HS8 waste code generally differs for import and export. –Not necessarily a problem: Must use export data only for estimating waste below export threshold. Evaluation: Crucial assumption –Hard to correct for in the calculations –Do enterprises try to avoid “bureaucracy”? –Consult Advisory Board, Customs and Excise Authorities, selected enterprises

7 Assumptions - treatment 7. The correct R-code can be determined - based on assumption no. 2 and the explanations to the HS8 codes Evaluation: Only relevant for FTS –Believed to be valid as long as no waste for energy recovery in FTS. More study needed. –R-codes already exist in WSR-dataset

8 Waste below thresholds In Norway: –Threshold on import:  1000 NOK (€ 125 )  Smaller items are available (down to € 25), but they have not been subject to audit –Threshold on export:  5000 NOK (€ 625) Artificial threshold variation: –Based on assumption 6; simulate several thresholds and assume the trend above the real threshold can be extended below it –For green wastes to recovery –Anticipate a fairly good estimate of amounts below real threshold, although some shipments for certain waste codes may be problematic

9 Example 1

10 Example 2

11 Artificial variation – possible alternative Mirror-statistics –FTS from other countries (trading with Norway) with lower monetary thresholds may be used to solve the threshold problem –Mirror-statistics is often not recommended due to comparability- problems –Nevertheless! - Useful exercise in order to reveal uncertainty in FTS

12 Contact information Pilot study manager, Mr. Gisle Berge, ph Mr. Håkon Skullerud, ph Mr. Jørn K. Undelstvedt, ph Thank you for your attention!