Climate Change: Implications for the South West Sarah Hendel-Blackford SWCCIP Manager & Coordinator 8 June 2006

Observed climate change in the South West The regional response: SWCCIP work Future predictions and implications for the South West

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

Global warming over next 40 years does not depend on emissions scenarios: Annual-mean temperature rise, deg C High emissions Medium-high Medium-low Low emissions Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

Regional Response: SWCCIP’s mission is to investigate, inform and advise on the impacts of climate change in SW England Established 2001: Chaired by Environment Agency and Government Office South West, partnership between key regional stakeholders Emphasis on Adaptation 2003: “Warming to the Idea”, SW Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study

The SW climate change study set out to: - Describe climate change scenarios for the SW - Identify the likely impacts of such change - Suggest actions needed to respond to impacts.

SWCCIP sector group work Agriculture Biodiversity Housing and Construction Local Government Tourism Utilities

SW anticipated changes Summary of anticipated changes likely to affect the south west (2050s and 2080s): Summer: 2050s:Warmer by ºC, drier by 15 to 30% 2080s:Warmer by 2-5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55% Winter: 2050s:Milder by ºC, wetter by 10 to 30% 2080s:Milder by ºC, wetter by 5 to 15%, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90% Source: WTI 2003 adapted from UKCIP02

“If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try going to bed with a mosquito” What you can do: Find out more: Raise awareness and plan for future changes Case studies?

Conclusions: Climate change is a “now” issue (In)Action has long-term implications Climate change requires adaptation and mitigation