2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 1 1 Introduction Worldwide Commercial Launches 2005 forecast: poised for moderate increase in NGSO launch activity NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads –Payloads that generate launch demand –Typically no secondary or dummy payloads

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 2 2 Identify & research all current and proposed NGSO systems Step 2 Step 1 Step 3 Examine FCC licensing status Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Build Excel-based Traffic Model using constellation configuration and deployment schedule Step 7 Peer review final text Methodology Review business and financial progress, satellite specifications, launch plans, and overall market status Conduct interviews with companies and the FCC and survey launch providers on near-term manifest Review data with companies, update model, write report

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 3 3 Baseline Satellite Forecast 144 satellites ; average of 14.4 per year 36% increase compared to last year 80 in 2003, 151 in 2001 forecast by sector 60% International Scientific/Other 28% Telecommunications 12% Commercial Remote Sensing

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 4 4 Baseline Launch Forecast 64 total launches % increase compared to last year 51 launches in 2004 and 2003, 63 in 2002 Average of 6.4 launches per year 2.5 medium-heavy launch vehicles 3.9 small launch vehicles by sector Int’l Scientific/Other 44 launches Remote Sensing 13 launches Telecommunications 7 launches

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 5 5 Near-Term Manifest Note: includes only those payloads announced as of May 3, 2005

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 6 6 Baseline Forecast More satellites and launches in near-term Most of the 2005 forecast increase is from International Scientific/Other Big LEO and commercial remote sensing similar to last year FAA increased number of mid- and far-term International Scientific/Other satellites compared to last year based on historical activity

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 7 7 Near-Term Satellite Mass 11 more satellites under 200 kg compared to 2004 forecast 10 more satellites in two heavier mass classes ( ,200 kg and >1,200 kg compared to 2004 forecast)

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 8 8 Trends in NGSO Forecast More “Other” satellites 5 SAR-Lupe radar satellites for the German Defense Ministry 4 demonstration launches for Bigelow inflatable space habitat Several systems making progress to enter future forecasts Globalstar Thinking about new system, 2 launches coming up, new investors Iridium Replacement plan with launches of ~1 or 2 per year over period ~10 years Could award satellite manufacturing contracts in 2008 or 2009 Satellite Radio for Europe could be in NGSO Question of when not if Orbital commercial human space flight America’s Space Prize by 2010, sponsored by Bigelow Aerospace Dnepr launch vehicle increase in activity Twice as many launches in near-term forecast as last year Low prices New launch site under development at Dombarovsky

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 9 9 Factors That Affect Launch Demand Strength of U.S. and international economy Investor confidence Government purchase of commercial services Satellite lifespan Need for replacement satellites Business case changes Regulatory and political changes New markets Successful prize competitions inspire other competitions

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 10 Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 11 Forecast Launch Averages and Maximum Since 1998

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 26, 2005 Federal Aviation Administration 12 The “2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts” report is available on the FAA/AST website