World Shipbuilding Situation  U ncertain world economics  O vercapacity, expansion  4 major building areas  S hipyard capacity/productivity

World seaborne trade - bn tonne-miles Source: Fearnresearch

Japan's devastated banks On the agenda YUKOS’ OIL PRODUCTION UP 18.0% IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2002 Mikhail Khodorkovsky Chairman and CEO YUKOS Oil Company

Source: Fearnleys, IEA, INTERTANKO Will the strong growth continue?

World exports geographical distribution

Shipbuilding situation

World Shipbuilders’ Situation  J apan Large domestic market High productivity  S outh Korea Large, modern yards Currency advantage  C hina Labour cost advantage Building to special requirement Fragmented  E urope Tradition, expertise Subsidies, low productivity Fragmented

Vessels on order by builders' and major shipowners’ regions

World fleet and orderbook - million dwt February %

World commercial fleet growth Growth since end of 1996, ie the past 5 years

Tanker deliveries - dwt

Tanker newbuilding prices

Aframax newbuilding price USD/Won

VLCC price in USD/Yen

Total completions AWES/Korea/Japan - CGT

Productivity CGT/person AWES Korea/Japan

Looking ahead  C ontinued demand growth??  Y ard overcapacity continues?  C losures in Europe?  C hina, more expansion?  P rices?

Market

INTERTANKOs aim is

Tanker deliveries - number

Contracting

Medium term oil trade development  M ore short haul oil, FSU, W Africa, Mexico (-N Sea)  US oil production decline halted – long term up?  I ncrease in trade depend on Asia  O verall OECD oil demand flat  S hort-term, cheap capacity lies in the Middle East  IEA : The pace of economic activity is the single most important driver of energy demand, but Politicians may set a different scenario