An Unhealthy Combination? When Concerns about Terrorism and Elections Collide Jennifer L. Merolla University of California, Riverside.

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Presentation transcript:

An Unhealthy Combination? When Concerns about Terrorism and Elections Collide Jennifer L. Merolla University of California, Riverside

Ideals of How Voters Make Decisions Gather Information Pay Attention to the Campaign Compare policy platforms of candidates Take into account the candidate’s experience and qualities Show up at the Polls

DaR Shows Terrorist Threat Influences Evaluations of Leaders  Terrorist Threats foster feelings of anxiety and negative emotions.  To cope with these emotions and restore control, efficacy, and security. Individuals:  Project Leadership Qualities onto Certain Leaders  Republicans, Male, Incumbents  Leadership becomes more consequential to decisions

Experimental Evidence Shows Individuals Project Charisma onto Right Candidates, and Downgrade Evaluations of the Left Candidates after Reading about Terrorist Threat Difference of means for pair-wise comparisons between Good Times and Terrorist Threat condition. Multiple variable analyses that include relevant controls yield similar results. And, simultaneously downgrade perceptions of rival leaders

Obama also does not get a boost in approval among those who read about terrorist threat

Mean Leadership Evaluations by Status and Threat

Those Exposed to a Terrorism Condition Give Hillary Clinton Cooler Ratings, but Condoleeza Gets a Boost

Individuals exposed to terror threat weight leadership more heavily in voting decisions

Implications for Current Election Salience of terrorism in the Pre-Primary Election gave a boost to Trump Did not have much effect on the Democratic Primary Republicans will likely want to play up the issue in the general election