DET Module 1 Ensemble Configuration Linda Wharton 1, Paula McCaslin 1, Tara Jensen 2 1 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 3/8/2016

Motivation National Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction Workshop (September 2009) Science issues: which ensemble is better? o Few members on high-resolution grid o Many members on coarse-resolution grid o Single model with perturbations or multiple models o Choice of analysis around which perturbations are made

Ensemble Configuration Define the configuration (i.e. namelists and scripts) to setup and run ensembles for optimal results including best options of: o Grid resolution o Number of members o Perturbations o Etc.

Goals Flexibility o A system that can emulate ensembles like those run at GSD, NCAR, AFWA, EMC, CAPS, University of WA, FSU, RENCI, etc. Portability o Multiple computing platforms to perform testing and evaluation Transfer to operations o Work toward NEMS compatibility o First R2O: NCEP operations

Basic Infrastructure Begin with community codes DTC already supports Define requirements: o Domains o Horizontal and vertical spacing o Output formats o Output fields Provide scripts to setup and run an ensemble so that testing may begin to address science issues

Configuration Module – Overview Module 1 Configuration Module Setup Phase WPS namelist WRF namelist WPP namelist MET configs Generates Static Files Sets Paths etc… Member 1 Member 2 Member 3 Member 4 Member N Writes namelists & configs Run Phase

Configuration Module - Setup Phase Config File specifies module options Module 1 Configuration Module Writes Workflow Manager XML Writes namelists & configs WPS namelist WRF namelist WPP namelist MET configs Generates Static Files Sets Paths etc… Module 2 – IC/BC Perturbations Module 3 – Physics Perturbations Option 1: no perturbations Option 2: ETKF Option 3: Simple Interpolation etc… Option 1: no perturbations Option 2: Different physics with each member Option 3: Stochastic perturbations etc… Module 4 – Statistical Post-Processing Module 5 – Products/Display Module 6 - Verification Option 1: no post-processing Option 2: Bias correction Option 3: Bayesian etc… Option 1: no products Option 2: mean, spread, min, max Option 3: Probability Matching etc… Option 1: no verification Option 2: Traditional Statistics Option 3: Spatial Statistics etc…

Configuration Module - Run Phase Module 1 Configuration Module Runs Workflow Manager Module 4 Statistical Post-Processing Module 5 Products/ Display Module 6 Verification Module 2 IC/BC Perturbations Module 3 Physics Perturbations

Examples of Existing Ensembles Operational systems o NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast o AFWA Joint Ensemble Forecast System Research systems o ESRL Hydrometeorology Testbed Ensemble o CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (HWT) o NCAR Joint Mesoscale Ensemble o University of Washington Ensemble o RENCI Ensemble

Configure Scripts to Consider Workflow Manager JME configuration scripts WRF Portal / Domain Wizard GUIs CAPS management scripts (K. Thomas) NCAR-RTFDDA Ensemble Member Selection Tool

First Year Deliverables Basic Infrastructure Run ensemble Answer scientific questions…

Questions Are there any ensemble systems that we should also include? If so, who is a contact person?