Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Meat Animal Outlook 2010/2011 Big Issues: 1.Adjustment to Economic Shocks 2.Exports as the Growth Market 3.Acceptance of Animal Agriculture??? 4. What Corn price Means to Pork Industry 5. Biofuels: Food/Fuel Conflict
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University BioFuels Production
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University The Economy
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Costs and Price Per Head: Purdue Estimates *11* Corn $/bu.bu.$1.97$2.28$3.39$4.78$3.75$3.99$5.05 S.Meal $/ton$188$176$231$331$347$298$328 Feed Costs $/head$43.18$43.06$42.65$89.35$87.25$83.59$78.33 Total Costs $/head$93.27$98.37$117.00$146.05$135.77$133.97$ Value $/head$132.63$125.24$124.78$129.15$111.34$148.67$ Profit-Loss $/head$39.36$26.87$7.78-$16.89-$24.43$14.70$4.76 Breakeven Corn Px/Bu.$4.99$4.34$3.99$3.51$1.90$5.10$5.41 * Remainder of 2010 and 2011 are Purdue Estimates
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Sows Successful Farming Change Smithfields1,020,000922,251-97,749 Triumph396,000371,500-24,500 Seaboard213,600 0 Iowa Select160,000152,500-7,500 Pipestone143,600132,000-11,600 Mashhoff's130,000 0 Prestage140,000125,000-15,000 cargill116,000 0 Carthage Sys90,25085,000-5,250 AVMC82,00077,000-5,000 Maxwells73,00069,000-4,000 Large 112,564,4502,393, ,599 Largest 253,135,1502,934, ,899 USDA: Sept U.S Breeding5,968,0005,788, ,000
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Change Iowa1,020,0001,010,000-10,000 N. Carolina990,000880, ,000 Minnesota580,000550,000-30,000 Illinois480,000490,00010,000 Oklahoma400,000410,00010,000 Nebraska ,000 Missouri345,000350,0005,000 Indiana270,000290,00020,000 Kansas170,000185,00015,000 Ohio170,000165,000-5,000 U.S.5,968,0005,788, ,000
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University BioFuels Production
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Renewable Fuel Standard Billion Gallons YEARConventional Biofuels: Corn Advanced Biofuels Celulosic Advanced Non- celulosic Advanced Biomass- based Diesel Total Renewable Fuel Standard
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University How much can ethanol industry pay for 2010/11 corn? RBOB Gasoline = $2.24/gallon over the 2010/11 corn marketing year Plus $.36 per gallon blenders tax credit Equals $2.60/ gallon ethanol Breakeven corn price is about $7.25/bushel RFS Mandate says blenders must buy 12.6 billion gallons in 2011 Ethanol industry cannot produce less by law Ethanol industry cannot use less corn by law
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Table 3: Top 10 US Pork Packers and Processors NAME OF OPERATION PlantsAnnual Harvest Mkt Share 1Smithfield Foods930,942,00029% 2Tyson Foods618,798,00018% 3JBS Swift311,960,00011% 4Cargill Meat Solutions29,360,0009% 5Hormel39,568,0009% 6Seaboard14,100,0004% 7Triumph Foods14,100,0004% 8Indiana Packers13,900,0004% 9Hatfield Quality Meats12,600,0002% 10Routh Packing1900,0001% Total 2896,228,00092%
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University 19 Bacon accounts for nearly half of all pork items on menus Source: MenuMine 2005 Distribution of menued pork items at same operators Bacon 46.2% Ham (Sliced, Unsliced) 19.2% Ribs 2.3 % Breakfast Sausage 12.9% Sausage 7% Pepperon i 8.2% Pork Chops, Loins, Tenders 4.1%
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University