2011 Mid Winter Financial Institutions Treasury Management Symposium Thomas Rasmussen Head of Municipal Sales, New York.

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Presentation transcript:

2011 Mid Winter Financial Institutions Treasury Management Symposium Thomas Rasmussen Head of Municipal Sales, New York

2011 Mid Winter Financial Institutions Treasury Management Symposium Market Overview - Technical Tax-Exempt Bond Fund Flows 1 (4-Week Moving Average, $bn) 1 Source: AMG Data Services, January 19th, Source: The Bond Buyer, and Bloomberg 3 Source: Federal Fund Flows Data 3 Source: Bloomberg Yield Ratio of AAA Muni's vs AA Corporates 2 Municipal Bond Ownership 3 Wells Fargo Build America Bond Index Average 4

2011 Mid Winter Financial Institutions Treasury Management Symposium Market Overview – Credit Fundamentals Interest Payment as % of Budget Revenue 1 General Government Debt as % of GDP 2 Revenue Mix – Trends in Three Largest Tax Sources 3 Year-Over-Year % Real Change in Major Taxes Percent Change of 4-Quarter Average 1 Source: EIU Country Data via Alacar 2 Source: Country data from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October Debt profile for State is defined as General Fund Supported Debt divided by Gross State Product 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (tax revenue) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP price index 3 Source: US Census Bureau 4 Source: National League of Cities, October 2010 Year to Year Change in General Fund Revenues & Expenditures 4

2011 Mid Winter Financial Institutions Treasury Management Symposium Market Overview – Challenges & Opportunities 1 Source: US Census Bureau, Citi Budget Estimates 2 Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Special Comment, “Moody’s US Municipal Bond Rating Scale”, page no.6 and 7, published March Source: The PEW Center On The States, 2008 Data 4 Source: Center for Retirement Research, Boston College Government Contribution as a percent of Budget percent5 percent U.S. state & local3.8%5.0%9.1% Florida Georgia Massachusetts California Illinois New Jersey Pension Contributions as Percent of Budget Periods 4 Pension Funding Ratios 3 FY 2012 Revenue Budgets Appear Reasonable 1 (Year-to-Year Change) Aaa Baa Lower defaults than Aaa corporates US Munis vs US Corporates 2 (Moody’s 10yr Cumulative Default Rates)