National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 16 December 2014

Outline Welcome – Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – Pam Knox, UGA (sitting in for David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU) Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – Pam Knox, UGA Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC ACF reservoir conditions – Bailey Crane, United States Army Corps of Engineers Summary and Discussion

Current drought status Pam Knox

November Freeze

14 Hours below freezing at Monticello FAWN station. N. Florida “snow”

Cold November

Late November Rainfall Totals

Latest 7-day Rainfall Totals

30-Day Rainfall

90-day Rainfall Departures

Streamflows and Groundwater Tony Gotvald

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Chattahoochee at Columbus( )

Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Conditions Previous briefCurrent brief

Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Seminole County 06F001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Early County 08K001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Seasonal Forecasts and Outlooks Pam Knox

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Nino Indices

Multivariate ENSO Index

ENSO Model Forecast

El Niño Fall/Winter Patterns

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

Other Signs of El Niño Dry summer in the Southeast Inactive Atlantic hurricane season Very active E. Pacific hurricane season Active SW Monsoon NOAA forecast 65% Australia BOM 70% Klaus Wolter 80-90% Tallahassee recorded the driest summer ever at 8.66 inches

Winter Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Jeff Dobur Streamflow forecasts

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

ACF Reservoir Conditions Bailey Crane, United States Army Corps of Engineers

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions December 16th

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Lake Lanier

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® West Point

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® W.F. George

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Woodruff

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® ACF Composite Conservation Storage

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ®

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Average Daily Inflow to ACF Lakes By Month

Summary – Pam Knox Most of the ACF basin abnormally dry or drought-free. Unusual cold snap in November, making it one of the coldest Novembers on record. Widespread heavy rains the last week of Nov., especially in the lower ACF. Otherwise, several lengthy dry spells in the last two months – aided harvest operations. 90 day deficits still present in the middle and upper ACF basin. Heaviest rain from the next system forecast to stay to the west. On-again, off-again El Niño seems to finally be in place, albeit weak. El Niño would favor above normal rainfall for the middle and lower ACF basin through the early spring.

Summary-Tony Gotvald Realtime streamflows are in the below normal range for most of the ACF basin, except for the the lower portion of the ACF basin. The streamflows are in the normal range for this area. Inflows into Lake Lanier are in the normal range for the 28-day average flows. Streamflows are in the normal throughout the Flint River basin for the 28-day average flows. Groundwater levels are in the normal range in Southwest Georgia

Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal, nearly equal chances at all 3 categories Not much change from previous forecast

Despite below average inflows, all reservoirs are near or above average for this time of year. Buford is expected to being refilling within the next month. West Point and Walter F. George are expected to maintain near their current levels through the winter. System conservation storage is expected remain steady or begin to slightly rise over the next month. Summary-Bailey Crane

Questions, Comments, Discussion

References Speakers Pam Knox, UGA (sitting in for David Zierden, FSU) Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Bailey Crane, United States Army Corps of Engineers Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

Thank you! Next briefing January 13, 2015 January 13, 2015, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: