The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson
The EGG Project (aka the Global Consciousness Project) International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: FieldREG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?
Homepage Status Day Sum Results Extract Magic Buttons Primary Links Menu at Bottom Berger: Web Design
The technology is only now available Electronics, Computers, Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history
A Random Event Generator (REG or RNG)
How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source Each trial is the sum of 200 bits
The binomial distribution of bit trials, compared with Theoretical normal distribution expected
Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)
When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes. - - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
A Real-Time Display (Bierman)
Here we see the combined data for a whole day, from 48 eggs
We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
For most of the formal predictions We specify a “Standard Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, z i = (m i - )/ Composite across eggs: Stouffer Z s = ( z i )/N 1/2 Composite Z is squared for 2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Z s 2 – 1 or 2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both
Cumulative sum of its expectation May show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs
Major disasters that engage us powerfully Often correlate with big deviations
Context explorations: Six hours of data Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo Cumulative deviation of Z s 2 or 2
The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east: An occasion of hope for resolution of differences
Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG
We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times
An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means Weak Replication Model Prediction
A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores Sum of z i 2 -1 across eggs is 2 with N df Equivalent to variance 2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction
Y2K New Year : Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT
New Years : Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed
New Years : Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window
The destruction of the World Trade Towers Sept A 50-hour trend followed the attacks
Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11 The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG networkPseudorandom clone data
Shoup: examining a larger context Comparing Sept 11 vs four months of days
Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11 Structure where there should be none
Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11 MeasureProbability estimateComparison standard Composite deviation0.003Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation0.0002Student t: 400 days Device variance peak0.0009Permutation: control p = Autocorrelation control days: p > 0.05 News correlation0.002Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0.30Time series: 365 days
Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years
What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done
Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Sharpen and focus our questions Aim for theoretical understanding Capture insight about creative mind Consider evidence that we are one Contribute to better future for culture
We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? -- Parker Palmer, educator