U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002 Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Initial Remarks

What is a Stakeholder? A stakeholder is any person, group, or entity with an active interest in some element of our study. Stakeholders in the room are from: Federal, State, and Local Government Environmental Conservation Organizations Concerned Citizens Academics

What is our purpose today? Three Goals: 1. Provide brief overview of our project and plans. 2. Solicit immediate feedback from those in the room. 3. Develop a “communications document” that will describe the way that we will disseminate information to you as the project progresses

Introductions….

U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – An Overview PI: Moglen Co-PI’s: Palmer, Bockstael, Pizzuto November 12, 2002 – University of Maryland

Context: Four Projects… 1. EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project: our first project as a group, focused on predicting and quantifying impacts of urbanization. 2. EPA NCEA/GCRP problem formulation report: preliminary investigation of climate and land use change effects. 3. EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1: “This Project”, focuses on model development of interactive effects of simultaneous land use and climate change. 4. EPA STAR Proposal Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 2: focuses on model production, predicting ecological impacts of the interactive effects of stress from land use and climate change.

Requires expertise from multiple fields – academic and agency partners Hydrology Geomorphology Economics Ecology Requires partners from national, state, local, and private sectors LU/LC Imagery MD Office of Planning MoCo Dept Env Protection RESAC, NASA Policy & Planning State & County Gov’t Watershed Managers Stakeholders Funding EPA’s Star Program NCEAS Mathematical & Computer Modeling EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: June May 2004 PI: Palmer Co-PI’s :Moglen, Bockstael, Pizzuto EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: June May 2004 PI: Palmer Co-PI’s :Moglen, Bockstael, Pizzuto

University of Maryland Margaret A. Palmer Glenn E. Moglen Nancy E. Bockstael University of Delaware Jim Pizzuto Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection Cameron Wiegand Keith Van Ness Dan Harper Lonnie Darr Colorado State University LeRoy Poff Ecology Hydrology Geomorphology Economics GIS, Policy & Planning EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project

Economics/ Land Use Change Hydrology Geomorphology Ecology Irrigation Increase in impervious surfaces Particle size Channel form Bed mobility Peak flow Base flow Flow variability Water quality Sediment regime Channel form Light levels Riparian Vegetation Suspended sediments Nutrient regimes

Cattail Hawlings Northwest Branch Paint Branch Montgomery County Howard County Test hypotheses about effects of new growth control policies Develop a method to estimate peak flows at high spatial and temporal resolution Develop a numerical model forecasting effects of land use changes, including time-varying changes in channel width, … and sediment transport Develop statistical relationships between land use change and ecosystem structure and function EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: Some Goals

EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report PI: Moglen, Co-PI: Palmer Duration: January 2001 – July 2002 Some Goals: Investigate how land use and climate change drivers affect streamflow distributions in study watersheds Forecast ecological effects of climate change and land use change using simulations with Aquatox

EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report – Simulated Flow

EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report – Ecological Consequences Ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate more strongly affected by land use than future climate higher means and higher annual variability predictions about climate change depended on the climate change model assumed. Oxygen most strongly affected by climate change. Oxygen levels decreased under all climate change Organic matter most strongly affected by land use Organic matter inputs decreased due mostly to decreases in riparian vegetation

EPA NCEA/GCRP – Current Project (or why you’re here!) PI: Moglen Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Palmer & Nelson, Pizzuto Duration: August 2002 – December 2003 Some Goals: “Model Development” Develop methods to translate probabilistic economic predictions into input for other disciplines including plausible year land use change scenarios Modify continuous flow model to be sensitive to dynamically changing land use as well as climate inputs Develop methodology for forecasting sediment delivery to 1st order streams Develop spatial habitat suitability model for one species

EPA STAR Proposal PI: Palmer Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Moglen, Nelson, Pizzuto, Tuchman Duration: Sept – Sept Some Goals: “Model Production” Generate land use change forecasts taking account of likely policy responses to climate change and sea level rise Use hydrologic models to describe future flow regimes under varying land use and climate change scenarios Use calibrated models … to provide parameters needed to forecast the influence of climate and land use change on ecological services Parameterize and test models using two multifactorial experiments with temperature, flow, UV, N:P and CO2 as factors.