California Energy Commission 2015 IEPR Self-Generation Forecast Sacramento, CA 12/17/2015 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Data Sources Rebate program data California Solar Initiative, New Solar Homes Partnership, Emerging Renewables Program, Self-Generation Incentive Program As programs sunset but strong interest in installing DG (mainly PV) – challenge for staff collecting installation data PV interconnection data requested from utilities 2

California Energy Commission Data/Model Updates (Relative to 2013 IEPR) Updated PV production profile based on data provided by CPUC Updated PV peak factors to better reflect impact coincident with utility system peak PV cost data/trend from CPUC Net Metering Public Tool (Final version) Residential model redone to use actual electric tariffs (IOUs) instead of average sector rate 3

California Energy Commission Data/Model Updates (Relative to 2015 IEPR Preliminary) Retail rates for investor-owned utilities transition from 4 tiers to 2 tiers with “super user charge” and a monthly minimum bill PV installed costs vary by scenario –Low demand has greater cost reduction and High demand scenario has relatively lower cost reduction Full retail credit for net exports in Low demand scenario and a NEM 2.0 scenario in the High demand scenario ($0.10/kWh plus $3/kW) Preliminary look at storage 4

California Energy Commission Forecasting Approach Underlying structure similar to payback/cash flow model used by EIA/NREL Payback calculations based on system and maintenance costs, incentives, and fuel rates Estimated payback applied to a Bass Diffusion adoption curve Results for adoption differ by demand scenario since projected fuel rates and number of homes/floor space vary by scenario 5

California Energy Commission Statewide Non-PV Self-Gen Energy Impacts All 3 scenarios close to one another and above CED 2013 Mid case 6

California Energy Commission Statewide Non-PV Self-Gen Peak Impacts All 3 scenarios close to another and ~800 MW higher than CED 2013 Mid case 7

California Energy Commission Statewide PV Self-Gen Energy Impacts All 3 scenarios above CED 2013 Mid Case. Impacts range between 13,200 GWH to 30,200 GWH representing 4% - 10% of electricity consumption. Slower growth after 2016 due to expiration/step-down of Federal tax credit. 8

California Energy Commission Statewide PV Self-Gen Peak Impacts All 3 scenarios above CED 2013 Mid Case. Impacts range between 2,900 MW to 6,400 MW and correspond to installed capacity of 7,700 MW to 17,500 MW 9

California Energy Commission Statewide Storage Self-Gen Peak Impacts 10

California Energy Commission Key Uncertainties Residential rate reform NEM reform Trends in DG cost and technology improvements New market opportunities for aggregating preferred resources 11

California Energy Commission Next Steps Near Term (Adopted Forecast): –Update historical installation data (2015 Interconnection data) –Net metering decision Longer Term (2017 IEPR): –Refinement to long term peak demand forecast methodology to integrate impacts from DG, EE, storage, and transportation using a common framework –Rulemaking proceeding to modernize data collection activities 12